Islamabad: President Asif Ali Zardari's plunging popularity has led to questions over whether he can finish his term, raising the possibility that political turmoil could undercut Pakistan's recent gains in the fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban.
Just one year after taking office, opinion polls say Pakistanis are unhappy with Zardari because he has been unable to control inflation and create jobs in the desperately poor country. Terrorism is not seen as the most pressing issue.
Some political analysts and rival politicians say they believe Zardari will be unable to survive until his term ends in 2013 given his lack of support, especially since his main rival, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, is seen as the most popular politician in the country by far.
Others said unseating a democratically elected leader in midterm would be hard, not least because Zardari's party has a clear majority in Parliament. Forcing him out would likely need support from the powerful military, which could be reluctant to become embroiled again in politics so soon after the resignation of Zardari's army-backed predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf, who was a deeply unpopular figure by the end of his decade-long rule.
Still, Zardari's political weakness — despite significant military successes against the Taliban and the death in August of feared terrorist organisation chief Baitullah Mehsud — is a major problem for Pakistan's Western allies. The US and other nations are looking for long-term partners to expand the fight against extremists threatening the stability of the nuclear-armed country as well as the US-led mission in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday, suspected terrorists opened fire on a government minister's car in the country's capital. Religious Affairs Minister Hamid Saeed Kazmi survived the daylight ambush, but his driver was killed. Some opposition figures questioned the government's ability to provide security even in the heart of Islamabad.
Foreign donors will be looking for political stability and focused leadership in Pakistan as they consider how to distribute millions of dollars of aid to help shore up democratic institutions, create jobs and reconstruct areas close to the Afghan border damaged in fighting with the Taliban.
By Western standards, Zardari's poll numbers are damning for a President so new in office.
A recent Pew Global Attitudes poll said just 32 per cent of the country had a favorable opinion of Zardari, down from 64 per cent a year ago. In the current poll, 79 per cent of people had a favorable opinion of opposition leader Sharif, while 67 per cent said they liked Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
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Pew conducted face-to-face interviews with 1,254 adult Pakistanis in late May and early June, mostly in urban areas. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In May, 72 per cent of those polled by the International Republican Institute said they disliked Zardari.
Zardari's path to power began when his wife, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, was killed in a suicide bomb attack in late 2007. Three days later, he became co-chairman of her political party, which swept to victory in parliamentary elections in February 2008 largely on a sympathy vote and disaffection with Musharraf. On Sept. 6, he was elected president by federal and regional lawmakers.
Still known by his nickname "Mr 10 Per cent" because of unproven corruption allegations when he was a minister in his wife's government, Zardari and the government led by his party have made little headway in tackling many of the daunting economic and social challenges facing the country.
"Zardari has been a big disappointment and has failed to inspire confidence in the nation at one of the most crucial junctions of our history. We deserve better," said opposition lawmaker Sen Mushahid Hussain on Tuesday. "In 2009, there is no stomach for serious change, but his presidency will start unraveling in 2010."
Presidential spokeswoman Farahnaz Ispahani pointed out several areas in which she said the president had made progress, including gathering public support for the fight against militants in the Swat Valley and securing an IMF bailout for the battered economy.
She dismissed suggestions that Zardari could be forced to step down, saying that there is no constitutional way for this to happen without the support of the parliament and that the party is solidly behind him. She said talk among politicians and in the media of removing Zardari was the continuation of years of attacks by the enemies of Bhutto's political party.
"We will succeed or fail, but we will fight to fulfill our five-year term," she said.
Zardari's decision to launch an April offensive into the Swat Valley to take back the region from the Taliban was widely praised at home and abroad, but it has apparently done little to help his image. The army has taken any credit for that decision, analysts said.
"His problem is that everyone thinks he is president not in his own right, but because of Benazir's death. In the last year he hasn't done anything substantial to establish his credentials for the rightful occupancy of this office," said political analyst Hasan-Askari Rizvi. "Unless economic and social issues are addressed, he cannot regain any popularity."
Also adding to pressure on the government are demands by Sharif's party to put former military ruler Musharraf on trial for violating the constitution. The demands are popular among many Pakistanis, but put the government in a tight spot because giving in could put it on a collision course with the still powerful army, something Sharif is surely aware of.
Pakistan has a long history of civilian governments that became bogged down in political fighting and accusations of incompetence only to have the military step in. In its 63-year history, only one government has seen out a full five-year term, and that was under Musharraf, who seized power in a coup.
In March, Zardari's refusal to reinstate the chief justice caused political turmoil for weeks and culminated in his putting Sharif under house arrest. Sharif ignored that order and marched on the capital with thousands of his supporters, forcing Zardari to give in.
The tensions between the two biggest parties persist and have been exacerbated by Zardari's unpopularity.
"This is an intrinsically dangerous situation and will create another round of instability," said Ishtiaq Ahmad, from Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University, referring to gathering sniping between the two main parties. "Whatever success in Swat will be neutralized."
Zardari is often criticised in the media for being aloof and not mixing with common people. His frequent foreign trips are also lambasted, especially since he has not been to Swat since the army offensive. He did visit a camp for some of the two million people displaced by the fighting, however.
More basic concerns are likely to erode any remaining good will. Power outages for up to six hours daily in some parts of the country cause misery for millions. The price of sugar, rice and flour have risen by more than 100 per cent over the last year, shoppers say.
Technically, Zardari is head of state and Gilani is in charge of the government. But the President inherited many of the sweeping powers from predecessor Musharraf, and most Pakistanis apparently blame him for the lack of progress, rather than the government as a whole.
Zardari has said he intends to give up those powers — which include the right to dissolve the assemblies and fire the government — but most observers think he is dragging his feet on that promise.
"One thing I am increasingly convinced about is that things cannot continue as they have been going. Change appears inevitable," said analyst Rasul Bakhsh Rais. "One way is Zardari is retained as a decoration piece with ceremonial powers, but whether he likes that remains to be seen."
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