The Karnataka Assembly polls are just four days away. As the state votes to elect a new government, national political parties will look to it as a dress rehearsal for the general elections. The regional parties will also expect to fare well so as to grab a significant share in the power-sharing arrangement in the state in case of a hung Assembly. Dr Sandeep Shastri, social scientist and analyst joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Coalgate, 2G, CBI and law ministry incident has any effect in damaging congress in Karnataka assembly. If so how serious it is? Asked by: Satya
A. I agree Satya these are seriously embarrassing issues for the Congress party.... however, this is a state assembly election and the BJP government in Karnataka has more serious embarrassments to face and deal with.
Q. Congress seems to have lost the momentum it gained in local election due to paltry effort in ticket distribution. whats your take on this? Asked by: Yash
A. Yes Yash, the Congress did make some mess of its candidate selection .... it has been able to stitch together some unity finally.
Q. Has BJP come back into reckoning especially after Modi's speech in Bangalore? Asked by: Ankit
A. Ankit, Modi's speech was clearly 'music for the ears' of BJP supporters. While the speech may have had an impact on the audience and party workers... will it translate into seats is a totally different 'political' ball game.
Q. Do you still think one party will get a clear majority? Asked by: ananya r gowda
A. Ananya, as voting day approaches it looks as if the Congress could move close to the majority mark or just above it.
Q. Will BJP end up as the second or third largest party thinking that KJP/BSR will definetly prevent it from becoming single largest? Asked by: Chetan
A. The race between BJP and JDS for the second and third position is close, Chetan. At the start of the campaign BJP seemed in second place. The JDS appears to have gained ground during the campaign.
Q. Mr Krishna boycott the PM election rally, it seems infighting in Cong going to anyway benefit BJP? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari, infighting is nothing new to the Congress. It will surely have an impact on the party. This explains why there is this debate on whether the Congress will fall short of a majority or just managed to scramble past the half way mark.
Q. From Media its understood that people upset with current govt, So congress can get more negative votes or JDS will get more negative votes? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari, you are right that there are two parties which stand to benefit from the anti-incumbency vote - Congress and JDS. The JDS has a more limited spread in the Bangalore and Southern Karnataka regions. The Congress base is much more wide spread. The Congress may be able to corner a bulk of the anti incumbency vote.
Q. Will BJP's campaign strategy of focussing on BJP stronghold and BJP tilting/swing seats pay dividends and will this provide a bonus to its total tally even though it is possibly going to be second largest tally? Asked by: CP
A. CP it is an interesting and important strategy which may help the party salvage some of the political space it seems to be fast vacating.
Q. Will the Congress really be able to manage a majority Asked by: vaishnavi hiremath
A. Vaishnavi, they should have been able to do it with a comfortable majority. Their squabbles and speaking in multiple voices could take its toll.
Q. If there is a hung assembly, who will be able to form coalition govt? Asked by: Mehul
A. Mehul, this depends on how close is the single largest party to a majority. If the distance from the half way mark is small, independents can be roped it. If there is a need for two of the three principal players - Congress, JDS and BJP, to come together, the deciding factor would be: whom will the JDS be able to strike a better deal with?
Q. After Massive crowd turnout Do you see any change in BJP's prospects? Asked by: Aman Ujjwal Bangalore
A. Aman are you talking of the turnout for the Modi rally... if yes then we need to see whether the campaign turnout will convert into voter turnout.
Q. It is bizarre that Congress after creating new world records in corruption will get hold of Karnataka. What can ordinary citizens do given that they are fed up with the corruption levels in state BJP? Asked by: Dilip
A. Dilip, I can understand your dilemma and frustration. Increasing number of voters are saying that we will back good candidates irrespective of parties. B-PAC the citizen initiative is doing just that.
Q. Will caste continue to be important? Asked by: ananya r gowda
A. Definitely Ananya, caste cannot be cast away. It is and will remain crucial in Karnataka. Caste is today an identity and no longer limited to the ritual, conservatism and exploitation of the past.
Q. In your opinion do you think One Rally of Modi can change the fortune of BJP in Karnataka? Asked by: Aliuddin
A. It may boost the morale of party workers but can work little magic in the campaign and may not impact on the result.
Q. Do you think if there will be any changes whatever party comes to power. Given the fact that congress and BJP and two sides of a same coin. Asked by: toms
A. Toms, I too sometimes tend to be cynical that will there will be any substantial change at the ground level. Lets hope that the Congress would be sufficiently chastened having been out of power for some time.
Q. How much seats BJP will get in next week's election? Asked by: Gyana
A. Gyana that's a tough one. If they cross 50 it would be a creditable achievement.
Q. Since last one week, as per information from newspapers,things are changing on ground for the good of BJP and as Modi is jumped into campaigning changed at bit. Got to know couple of more rallies are arranged for Modi today. What's your take? Will BJP able to cross 70+ seats? Asked by: anil
A. Anil, Recovery may be too late in the day..... Modi just addressed one rally in Bangalore and scheduled to address one more. It would be a real miracle if one rally could so dramatically change the electoral fortunes of a party.
Q. Don't you think that after reading what is written on the wall, BJP half halfheartedly campaigning in Karnataka. Even Modi was sent just to save the face of the party and avoid questions? Party high command is already accepted the defeat. Asked by: Aliuddin
A. Aliuddin a lot of people believe that the party has accepted being voted out and are going through the motions to salvage what little is possible. This is clearly visible in the body language of the leaders and the content of their campaign speeches. If they were sensing victory the campaign would have been more vigorous and Modi would not have addressed just one rally.
Q. If there is a hung assembly, who will be able to form coalition govt? Asked by: Mehul
A. Depends on who is the front runner and how many seats is that party short of a majority. Can they manage with independents or would they need the support of one of the major parties. If a two party coalition becomes inevitable, I think the JDS then hold the key.
Q. Dr Shastri, you seem to be unduly harsh on the BJP and soft on the Congress. Why so? Asked by: S Govardhan
A. Govardhan, that is the ground reality. I try to be consciously independent and objective in my analysis as I do not hold a brief for any party. Yes I am critical of the BJP government because of what the state has seen in the last five years and what our survey data points out to. I am not soft on the Congress.... If you read my earlier chats, I have been very critical of the Congress and have been so in response to earlier questions in this chat. Thanks for your comment as it reminds us to constantly remain objective.
Q. In case of a Congress govt coming to power, how much will this victory mean to the UPA at the centre? Asked by: JK
A. It will be a morale booster to the Congress led UPA. The margin by which they secure a majority will be critical. This will be one of the few good moments the party would have for quite some time.
Q. Modi used very sparingly in this campaign..What does it prove?..don't you think that people would be more cautious about the BJP's/Modi's abilities to influence voters in states where they are not powerful?.. Asked by: JK
A. JK, Modi not coming to Karnataka in a big way was anticipated for several reasons. One, he himself may not like to be part of a losing campaign... Second, a lot of flak for the present crisis in the BJP lies at the door of the Central leadership of the party. A defeat would require a re-alignment which could only help Modi. His staying away from the campaign could be linked to this factor too.
Q. Isn't very east to get elected in the election, provided the candidate comes every month to the public instead of once in years with folded hands and begging. Asked by: rakesh
A. Rakesh, I could not put the point better than you.
Q. Has namo campaign atleast energies BJP cadres and made them feel something proud,and enthusiastic about him? Asked by: purushottam
A. Yes Purushottam to an extent.
Q. Why is there a general media bias against the BJP in Karnataka? Asked by: S Govardhan
A. Govardhan, I am not sure whether there is a media bias against the BJP. Any ruling party will get flak for what it has not done and I think that is happening to the BJP.
Q. Whatever the results now, Do you think that the results would be different for the Lok Sabha elections?..or it would be on the same lines as people vote now? Asked by: JK
A. From Karnataka, they may be only marginal differences especially if there is some realignment in the BJP after the Assembly polls.
Q. Since the anti-incumbency votes will be divided between the INC, the JD (S), the KJP and the BSR Congress, don't you think that the BJP has a good chance of returning to power? After all, with all the so-called brouhaha over 'corruption' allegations, the BJP government has done reasonably good on development parameters and was as recently as 21st April, awarded two out of the seven prizes up for garbs for the states by none other the Congress-led UPA government. Asked by: Rittwik Bhattacharyya
A. Thanks Ritwik for those insights. The anti BJP vote will be largely split between the Congress and JDS. The BSR Cong and KJP is likely to split the BJP vote and I see no reason why the anti BJP vote should go to them as they were part of that dispensation and also need to take the blame for its shortcomings. The JDS has a presence in Old Mysore region and will be a strong contender for the anti-incumbency vote there. The Congress has the advantage of having a presence across the 224 constituencies and thus is in a better position to receive the anti-BJP vote. On the point of the BJP government having won recognition, it does not seem to be felt at the ground level to the extent that it could tilt the balance in their favour.
Q. Do not BJP workers still support Yeddyurappa and will it not be better for the BJP to bring hm back to the party? Asked by: Yeddyman
A. Oh your screen name indicates where your support lies!!! Yes, many among the rank and file of the BJP cadres still feel that Yeddyurappa's presence in the BJP could make a difference.
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