The searing heat wave may impact voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh where 14 parliamentary seats, including Raebareli, Amethi and Lucknow, will go to polls in the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Monday.
Kanpur and Agra, two of UP’s major cities, have experienced extreme temperatures, becoming the hottest places in the country last week. Agra recorded a high of 46.9 degrees Celsius on Thursday, which was 4.6 degrees above the normal average, while Kanpur saw similar temperatures on Friday.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that UP will face strong surface winds ranging from 25 to 35 km/h and severe heatwave conditions, particularly in East and West UP.
These extreme weather conditions are expected to persist for the next couple of days, creating an uncomfortable environment for voters in the 14 parliamentary seats, including high-profile constituencies such as Raebareli, Amethi, and Lucknow, which would go to the polls on Monday.
Other constituencies where polling will be held include Mohanlalganj, Hamirpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Faizabad, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, and Gonda.
According to IMD, the weather in these poll-bound cities is expected to remain sunny, with temperatures ranging between 43 and 48 degrees Celsius. The relentless heat is likely to deter many voters from venturing out to cast their ballots, despite measures taken by the State Election Commission to mitigate the heat’s impact at polling stations. These measures include setting up shaded areas and providing drinking water, but their effectiveness remains to be seen in such extreme conditions.
UP has already seen a decline in voter turnout in the previous four phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the fourth phase, the state recorded an average voter turnout of 58.09 percent across 13 constituencies, a slight drop from the 58.75 percent turnout in the 2019 elections for the same seats. Similarly, the third phase saw a turnout of 57.34 percent in 10 constituencies, which was 2.58 percent lower than in 2019.
The second phase, held on April 26, showed a 6.71 percent decline in turnout compared to 2019. This phase recorded a 55.19 percent voter turnout, whereas the 2019 election saw a 61.90 percent turnout in the same eight constituencies. The first phase of polling on April 19 also experienced a decline, with 61.11 percent turnout compared to 66.37 percent in 2019 for the same seats.
The consistent trend of declining voter turnout in the 2024 elections so far can be attributed to several factors, with the extreme weather conditions being a significant one. As temperatures soar, the willingness and ability of voters to participate in the electoral process diminish, raising concerns about the overall democratic engagement in these crucial elections.
In the face of such challenges, it remains uncertain how the Election Commission’s efforts to ensure voter participation will fare. The severe heatwave poses not just a physical barrier but also a psychological deterrent, potentially leading to lower voter turnout in the fifth phase.
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