The possibility of El Nino conditions developing this year was predicted for the second month in a row by US government weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday, and could be earlier than forecast last month.
The latest forecast suggest an even higher probability of the occurrence than the January prediction, as per a Times of India report. The forecast, released late on Thursday night, indicates that the El Nino conditions may set in around July, earlier than what January forecast stated.
El Nino is a weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean which takes place every three to six years, involving the warmer ocean water spreading further and closer to the surface, which lead to a change in wind pattern, impacting the weather in many parts of the world. Global temperatures increase by about 0.2 degree Celsius during an El Nino episode, as per BBC.
While the NOAA forecasts predict El Nino conditions this year, a more reliable picture of the conditions during the monsoon season will emerge around April – May, as per the report.
In its January model forecast, the NOAA had indicated neutral conditions prevailing until July, with a higher chance of El Nino conditions in August. However, the most recent update points to a 49 per cent probability of El Nino conditions developing in June-July-August period. For the July-August-September period, El Nino’s probability increases to 57 per cent, as per the model.
Experts, however, said that the model predictions are based on the conditions in January and a lot can change as the year progresses.
“A signal for El Nino showing up in models for two successive months needs to be taken seriously. However, a clearer picture is likely to emerge only by April or May because conditions in the Pacific undergo changes during spring,” D Sivananda Pai, director of Institute for Climate Change Studies in Kottayam, told Times of India.
“There’s an inverse relationship between El Nino and the Indian summer monsoon, which means rainfall is usually subdued during an El Nino year. But it’s not a one-on-one relationship. Other factors such as conditions in the Indian Ocean, the Eurasian snow cover, intra-seasonal variation etc also impact monsoon rainfall in India,” Pai said.
Currently, the Pacific is experiencing La Nina conditions, or abnormal cooling, for a record three years. If the current projections of El Nino come true, the Pacific will go through a swift transformation from abnormal cooling to abnormal warming within five months without a significant neutral period, as per the report.
The change will impact India’s monsoon. La Nina has been favourable for a good monsoon. The last El Nino, in 2018, coincided with below-normal rainfall in the country and India has seen four good monsoons in succession since then.
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