On 20 April, Pakistan’s foreign ministry announced that foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will visit India to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) foreign ministers meeting in Goa on 4-5 May. As the SCO has been under the deep influence of China and given Pakistan’s nexus with China, it is impossible to conceive that Bilawal would have attended the meeting if the Chinese had asked him to stay away. Clearly, they have not done that.
It is noteworthy that Bilawal could have attended the meeting virtually but is coming in person. Bilawal’s choice of doing so could not have been his alone. The leaders of the three major constituent parties of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif would have been taken on board. Thus, Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari and Maulana Fazlur Rehman would have signalled their consent to this trip. Besides, the present army chief General Asim Munir too would have given his approval.
For many Indians, especially in the security and political classes, the conviction that India’s main external challenge is from China has taken a firm hold. Hence, Pakistan’s salience has gone down in the country’s security calculus. However, on account of Pakistan’s continuing ability to instigate terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and also in some other places in India, the country remains high in the general Indian consciousness. This is also because of historical factors and its leaders’ constant statements against India and its leaders.
An extreme example of such a comment was made by Bilawal himself against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a press conference at the United Nations premises in New York in December last year. Bilawal said, “I would like to remind the honourable external affairs minister of India that Osama bin Laden is dead but the butcher of Gujarat lives and he is the prime minister of India.” This writer can say with near certainty that never have such obnoxious words been used by even Pakistan against an Indian prime minister. These comments of Bilawal should be kept in mind when he is on Indian territory even if he is visiting India to take part in a multilateral ministerial meeting and an ‘invitation’ to him could not be avoided.
On the very day that the Pakistan foreign ministry announced Bilawal’s visit to India a terrorist attack occurred in Poonch in which five jawans were martyred. The sophistication of the attack, the weapons and bullets used as well as its timing leaves little doubt that its origin lay in Pakistan. Besides, experience shows that the ISI often seeks to coincide terrorist attacks with political visits or an announcement of political visits to send a signal that India should not take the visit to imply that the army is softening its attitude towards India. In this case, it also wants to send the message that despite Pakistan’s domestic troubles–political and economic as well as in the security sphere caused by the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP)–it retains the capacity to strike against the Indian Army through terrorist attacks.
It is not known as yet if Bilawal will travel straight to Goa or first come to Delhi. He will be tempted to visit Delhi if for nothing else to make strong statements to the Indian media mixed with a desire to improve ties. He would know that after his unforgivable comments against Modi, no political leader would be willing to meet him. Certainly, till Bilawal withdraws these comments no Indian political leader should meet him. However, some members of the Indian media would find it difficult to not give him some kind of a platform to speak. This can also happen if he visits only Goa. It is this writer’s conviction that Indian media bodies and organisations should advise their members to insist on an apology from him for the words he has used against Modi before they give him any kind of platform. Whatever may be India’s domestic controversies it is simply unacceptable that a foreign minister of another country should be allowed to spew such venom against an elected prime minister.
It is customary for a foreign minister visiting a country to take part in a multilateral conference to seek a call on his host. It is also customary to respond positively to such a request. It is likely that Bilawal would follow international custom and ask for a call on External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. How should Jaishankar respond? It would be prudent for Jaishankar not to break international customs. He could therefore have a brief bilateral courtesy meeting with Bilawal and restrict the conversation to only SCO issues. As terrorism is an issue which concerns SCO member-states, Jaishankar can use that opening to convey a strong message of India’s continuing will and capacity to take, whenever necessary, deterrent action against terrorists based outside India. It would also be desirable to reiterate the doctrine of preemption that India had emphasised immediately after the Pulwama attack of 2019.
Bilawal is only 34. He is articulate and skilful and hence his comment on Modi cannot be excused as the exuberance of an up-and-coming politician. He may need to make such comments for his domestic constituency and would be aware that whatever he would say in India would be part of the election rhetoric whenever it takes place in Pakistan. He may also like to curry favour with the army for his own political future by saying harsh things from Indian soil. Naturally, the government will respond suitably to such comments from him.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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