Apart from the north-eastern states, among the major states, the Karnataka election is done and dusted in which Congress wrested power from the BJP and called the loss a clear mandate for a ‘BJP-mukt south India’ — hitting the saffron party with its own game of slogans.
With four states remaining — Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh — BJP knows it has to showcase its best performance to winch the perception war ahead of the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha election when Narendra Modi will seek re-election for the third consecutive term. Regardless of the invincible ‘Modi magic’, if BJP fails in these four states, it is likely to have a direct bearing on the mind of the electorate.
Among the four states, BJP is in power only in MP. The Congress rules in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while TRS — now known as BRS — handles Telangana’s reins. A formidable performance for the BJP would mean retaining MP, winning back at least one of the two Congress-ruled states, and establishing itself as a strong opposition in Telangana if it fails to attain Amit Shah’s ‘Mission 70’ in the state.
But what should BJP do to get there?
TELANGANA
While the headlines are dominated by the recent reshuffle where RSS’ blue-eyed boy Bandi Sanjay was replaced from the post of Telangana BJP president by Union Minister Kishen Reddy, BJP’s trump card seems to be someone else.
In a state where BJP has tried to ignite Hindutva emotions time and again, its success depends upon how well it connects with its local sentiment which has roots in the movement for the creation of Telangana. And who better than Eatala Rajender, a former top TRS leader and associate of K Chandrasekhar Rao who walked out and joined the BJP?
Rajender worked with KCR since 2003 and led the separate state agitation from the front. He was as much a hero of the movement, whose sentiments cut across social strata in Telangana, as KCR. He also acted as the legislative party floor leader between 2008 and 2014.
If BJP wants to go any closer to Shah’s ‘Mission 70’ in the southern state, it needs to project Rajender — essentially an outsider with no RSS background — as its chief ministerial face. Notwithstanding Kishen Reddy’s powerful surname, it won’t help BJP win the assembly poll where movement legacy is key.
It’s not that the BJP isn’t mindful of that. Rajender was recently appointed as the chairperson of the party’s election management committee in the state. While he promised he would strive for BJP’s victory in the state, even positioning BJP as a strong opposition will be considered a good performance, given the party’s 2018 tally.
Rajender has already started to set the narrative that if there is one party that can oust KCR, it is BJP. He is seen reminding voters how BJP had won two assembly bypolls, the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election, and legislative council polls. A senior minister in the BRS government, Rajender was unceremoniously removed from the cabinet and he has a point to prove. At this time, both Rajender and the BJP need each other. But it remains to be seen whether JP Nadda announces his name as BJP’s CM face.
MADHYA PRADESH
Post Operation Lotus and a ‘royal’ jump in 2020, BJP pulled down a Congress government and established its rule. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who was ousted earlier, was back at the helm once again. But come 2023, ‘Mama’, as Chauhan is known in the state, is looking wary — particularly while weathering the after-effects of a Congress win in Karnataka.
While most pollsters are predicting a close finish like last time, even recent bypoll results seem to indicate that way. A total of 13 local body by-elections were held for the post of corporators of which seven were won by the BJP and six by the Congress. However, what brings cheer to the BJP camp was a winning of a ward in Chhindwara — Kamal Nath’s constituency — in the local body bypolls in MP.
But what can BJP do to beat the anti-incumbency and retain the state?
The answer is simple — BJP needs to change its state president VD Sharma. The ongoing cold war between the chief minister and the party boss is public knowledge and is resulting in an absolute lack of coordination between the government and the organisation. BJP often leans on to the party to drive home the point about government projects. With Chouhan and Sharma not seeing eye to eye, that is not happening on the ground.
BJP usually does not change its CM face when they have a chief minister in a state. To contain the damage, the BJP needs to quickly find Sharma’s replacement who is on the same page as Chouhan.
RAJASTHAN
The desert state ruled by Congress is reeling under anti-incumbency, allegations of corruption, and most importantly — inner-party rivalry. The Gehlot vs Pilot saga has become so old that it no longer makes it to the headlines on TV news channels. But, despite that, the BJP is not well placed to win unless it declares Vasundhara Raje as its chief ministerial face.
Let’s face it, Raje is the undisputed BJP leader with a dash of royalty who commands the loyalty of party MLAs, most of whom are not subservient to 6A, Deen Dayal Upadhyay Marg — BJP’s national headquarters. So much so that Raje did not think twice before opposing Amit Shah when it came to organisational appointments in 2018. Back then, Ashok Parnami — a Raje loyalist — had resigned as Rajasthan BJP chief. But Shah’s efforts to appoint Gajendra Shekhawat in his place weren’t received well by Raje.
Cut to 2023, the BJP is yet to declare her its CM face. Manifesting her usual ‘Raje-ism’, the former Rajasthan chief minister has gone ahead and is holding her own public events. Probably sensing the vibe, in a recent event in Udaipur, Amit Shah delivered a powerful signal by asking Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathore to invite Raje to speak before Shah himself delivered the keynote speech. Sources say Raje’s speech was not planned. Similarly, in Bharatpur, Raje was asked to speak just before JP Nadda, the party president.
If BJP indeed wants to exploit the intra-Congress rivalry and capitalise on the anti-incumbency, it needs to project Raje as the chief minister of a state where, by and large, loyalty to royalty is still the norm.
CHHATTISGARH
If Chhattisgarh can be equated with a jungle, unfortunately, the BJP doesn’t have a ‘Babbar Sher’ (lion) here. The ‘pack’ of cadres are waiting eagerly to pounce upon Congress with whatever might they have after being battered in the 2018 rout when chief minister Raman Singh resigned as the longest-serving BJP CM. But the ‘pack’ doesn’t know who will lead them. If in any state the saffron party is so disillusioned, it’s in Chhattisgarh.
Realistically speaking, the BJP’s best move here will be to announce a chief ministerial face who is available on the ground, can lead from the front and put up a reasonable fight backed by Narendra Modi’s campaigning. But the moot question remains — who is leading BJP in Chhattisgarh?
Raman Singh is currently the national vice-president who is more active on social media and seldom seen on the ground. His coterie too has vanished. Leader of Opposition Narayan Chandel isn’t popular enough and state president of BJP Arun Sao hasn’t created a connection with cadres that can make him a mass leader. While both are OBCs, BJP seems to have another OBC leader in mind who — to BJP’s delight — has gained considerable traction both on ground as well as social media.
OP Choudhary is a former IPS officer who is right now serving as the state’s general secretary. Young, with a clean slate, and relatively popular with the cadres, Choudhary is BJP’s best bet, given that the assembly election is just a few months away. On the other hand, Congress’s Bhupesh Baghel, in spite of a five-year term, remains reasonably popular. Hence, BJP desperately needs a leader who can lead from the front in Chhattisgarh.
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