'In spite of Modi, it's an open election in Gujarat'

New Delhi: The results of the CNN-IBN-Indian Express-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS pre-poll survey on Gujarat were released on Wednesday, which said the BJP enjoyed a 5 percentage points lead over the Congress when the election process began in the state on Thursday.

The survey was designed and analysed by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The eight-member core team which designed, coordinated and analyzed the survey was led by political analyst Yogendra Yadav.

Yadav, whose name is almost synonymous with psephology (or statistical analysis of elections) in India, was the guest on IBNLive chat room on Thursday when he answered readers’ queries and addressed various concerns over the survey.

Here we reproduce the full text of the chat:-

Venkatesh: Mr Yogendra, does it mean that the Patels are still sticking on with Narendra Modi’s BJP?

Yogendra Yadav: We have found that the support for BJP among the Patels has declined a little, but on the whole the Patels are still with the BJP. The assumption that Keshubhai’s anger will lead to en mass desertion by Patels is not borne out by evidence.

Manish: The survey is heavily centred around Narendra Modi. Everything else appears to be compared with him or his actions. How would you convince that the survey findings are credible?

Yogendra Yadav: Would it not be odd if someone did a survey on electoral/ political mood in Gujarat and not ask several questions about Modi? In any case, we routinely ask several questions about the incumbent CM in every state. More so if the person happens to be a major factor (like Lalu Prasad or Karunanidhi or Badal etc). We have asked a large number of questions and only some have to do with Modi. The questions about government performance etc have nothing to do with Modi per se.

Shiv: The pre-poll survey gives a clear-cut indication that BJP will come to power again in Gujarat. What does it reflect? What factors matter most in the upcoming election? Has Narendra Modi scored more than his opponents? If Modi comes to power again, what will be its implications for the Congress and the Left parties?

Yogendra Yadav: No, we are not saying that BJP WILL come to power. I am personally not sure that it will. All we are saying is that at this stage, it is ahead by 5 points. It is still a month to go and the lead is not impossibly big. So it is still an open election.

Jain S.H: Good evening. On Wednesday, you said Modi’s victory in 2002 was a darker side of democracy. Then as a common Indian how will you judge the victory of Bharat Ratna Rajiv Gandhi in 1984?

Yogendra Yadav: I personally do think that the anti-Sikh massacre of 1984 and anti-Muslim massacre of 2002 were some of the biggest blots on our records as a democracy. In both cases, the ruling parties and the governments were guilty. In both cases, the riots influenced (to a lesser degree for the Congress in 1985 and to a greater degree for the BJP in 2002) the electoral verdict that followed. In that sense, both are examples of dark side of democracy.

Arun Kumar M: Yogendra, keeping in mind lots of pre-poll surveys going wrong, how can you vouch for accuracy of this survey?

Yogendra Yadav: There is no guarantee, except public vigil and memory. In that sense, I think it is a very healthy practice to subject pollsters to public scrutiny and questions. You might wish to take a look at our records. We have so far done eight forecasts for CNN-IBN and have seriously gone wrong in two of these. But please bear in mind, that we have as yet made no forecast for Gujarat. That we will, once the exit/post-poll is done. What we have offered right now is only a measure of how the race stood at the starting point.

Krishna: Please explain how Modi’s popularity is increasing and at the same time people do not want him to be CM again. What’s this negative correlation?

Yogendra Yadav: Sorry, I do think we have said anything of that kind.

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Srini: An interesting finding of your pre-poll survey was the fact that a significant chunk of the rich and the middle sections preferred the BJP while the lower economic segments showed a greater preference for the Congress. In our country, generally, the poor are the ones who turn up to vote more than the rich. Was your survey considering only that ‘rich’ and ‘middle’ sections that were sure to turn up to vote? If no, would that factor hamper the overall findings of the survey much at all? Will there be a case where despite the greater overwhelming support for Modi’s BJP among the better off sections, the poor could hold the card and vote the opposition Congress to power? How much weight can such an argument carry?

Yogendra Yadav: In our current projection, we have not given any special weight to any section and have assumed that all sections will turn out in proportion to their strength in population. But if there is a huge difference in the turnout rate of poorer and richer section (more poor turn out, but very few rich do), then it would adversely affect the chances of the BJP. Our article clearly says that.

Chirag: The campaign in Gujarat has still not begun. Modi being a master in election campaigning, what are the chances that the BJP will get beyond 100 seats?

Yogendra Yadav: Don’t know. Too early to guess that.

Kishorjani: Alliance of the Congress with other parties like NCP or BJP dissidents will prove to be in favour Congress or not? Your views please.

Yogendra Yadav: The contest appears so close that any attempt by the Congress to unite non-BJP vote should help, provided they are not given undue share.

Raj: Hi Mr Yogendra, can we say the upcoming elections will be between Modi vs Congress, and not between BJP vs Congress?

Yogendra Yadav: I said last night that it looks like Modi vs Modi. His biggest problem is the BJP and his real source of strength is the Congress.

FN: Hi, why even after becoming aware that Modi had done crime and have misused his power in, he has been given the right to stand for election?

Yogendra Yadav: Because our law permits, and rightly so, anyone who has not been convicted of serious crime to stand for election. As yet Mr Modi has not been convicted or even seriously tried. So in the eyes of law, he is innocent.

Biju: Hi, I remember last time when you had conducted a survey you never predicted Modi will get a 2 /3rd majority. Recollecting yesterday’s show you said last time too the lead fell from 15 to 10 per cent. Applying the same analogy, do you think this time too the momentum at the last will shift in favour of Modi.

Yogendra Yadav: Generally speaking, the lead for the ruling party tends to fall in the last few weeks. But that may not happen in each and every case.

Srini: A question related to methodology again. In your earlier predictions for the UP elections, you had repeatedly (and correctly, as shown later) pointed out ‘hiding’ or ‘falsification of choices’, particularly by BSP supporters. In this election too, this factor can play a role, in my opinion. Voters, for e.g. could hide their preference for the Modi-led BJP, fearing identification with communalism, or conversely hide their preference for the Opposition fearing non-identification with the ‘majority community’. Does this factor play a role at all or am I simply blabbering? Lastly, how did you account for the dissident factor?

Yogendra Yadav: We are very acutely conscious of this possibility in Gujarat and have taken precautions in field research and also deployed special data analysis techniques to correct for fear factor or over-reporting. What we have presented is after conducting all this analysis. Rebels, we have not accounted for at this stage.

Ashit Gandhi: Hi Yogendra, thanks for the survey. Isn’t it true that the actual voter which is generally a poor man and not the rich or even middle class, which is against BJP as per your survey, will harm BJP/Modi?

Yogendra Yadav: If they turn out in big numbers, disproportionate to their size in population, then it would hurt the BJP.

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Dharmendra Kumar: Good evening Mr Yogendra. The weakness of the BJP may give an advantage to Congress and its allies, but are they prepared to take the advantage and do they have a leader whose credibility is as good as Mr Modi?

Yogendra Yadav: That is one of the weakest point of the Congress. Their state leadership cannot match Modi in dynamism, charisma and popular appeal.

Sameer Bhagat: Hi Yogendra, in your analysis you claimed that the whole world is watching if democracy can overcome the dark side it had shown in 2002. Can't we say the same about Congress that democracy has overcome or it will overcome the pseudo-secular politics played by the Congress since India's Independence? If you see, the urban middle class mostly educated who can analyse the policy of the Congress govt don't vote for them.

Yogendra Yadav: Dark Side of Democracy (title of a book by Michael Mann) refers to situations in which the majority uses democratic instruments to suppress the minority. This is what happened in Gujarat in 2002. The democratic majority in any democracy can get deceived or make mistake, but not every such ‘mistake’ of the electorate is ‘dark side of democracy’.

Manoj: Yogendraji, people are supporting Narendra Modi. Is it safe to say Nazism has matured in Gujarat? After all you can't blame Hitler alone for the Holocaust? After all, he did it with the active support of the German population. I am using the word 'Holocaust' because our PM, Manmohan Singh, has used this in reference to Gujarat riot. Even Germans had a lot of excuses for whatever they did. Is this lead for Modi is about development or maturing of Nazism?

Yogendra Yadav: I hesitate to use expressions like Nazism. We should find our names for our illnesses. I would not say Modi is ahead only because of 2002 riots. It is true that he made his name and acquired early fame through dubious and cynical role during the riots. But thereafter he has worked while his opponents have not been active. I would not blame the people of Gujarat. All of us have this weakness inherent in us. Modi has exploited it while his opponents have not come up with any principled response. If there is no principled response to the massacre, the Congress is as much to be blamed as the BJP.

Girish: Adding to my last question, were there any question in the survey to ask how many voters (out of 6000) are now thinking of voting against BJP just because they believe media?

Yogendra Yadav: No, we have asked about media exposure but direct question about its relationship to vote is not very helpful.

Mahesh Langa: 1) As per the findings of the survey, BJP enjoys five per cent lead over Congress. Do you think it can drop or increase as the polling days get nearer? 2) From the findings, can we conclude the era of BJP’s unassailable domination in the state is coming to an end? And if yes, how? 3) If Congress ties up with NCP and BJP dissidents, would it help the party in any significant way? I mean, can the party get more seats if split in anti-BJP votes in avoided? 4) If BJP loses, what would be the factors responsible for party’s loss? 5) Is the state going towards another KHAM because the survey has found that castes, which were essential components of the KHAM alliance, are leaning towards Congress?

Yogendra Yadav: 1. Yes, usually the ruling parties lose during the campaign period. But that is not necessary. The situation can certainly change. 2. Yes, whatever the result of this election, this does not look like the earlier elections when the BJP won with a gap of 10 points or so. 3. Yes, any non-BJP unity will help in small ways, provided Congress does not leave too many seats for them 4. There is a possibility of a new version of KHAM with Kshatriyas returning to Congress in a big way. But we don’t know if this is a long-term phenomenon.

Akhil Mishra: Whether anti-incumbency factor against the local MLA is an important factor or not? I feel if BJP doesn't bring new faces, it may lose few seats on that count. What do you feel?

Yogendra Yadav: Yes, that is a real possibility.

Krishna: Please explain how Modi’s popularity has increased to 40 per cent and yet the overall vote share for the BJP is declining to 45 from 50. If I like Modi and his work, then won't I vote for him? How do you explain this? Maybe you got my question wrong earlier.

Yogendra Yadav: Personality of the CM is not the only factor in considering who to vote for. Other factors could have gone against the BJP.

Venkatesh: Is there any support for Mayawati’s BSP in Gujarat? And if she contests alone, can she split votes and help the BJP win?

Yogendra Yadav: No evidence so far

Sanchit Saxena: Hi Yogendra, I have doubts about the credibility of Exit polls. For surveys you go to the people asking their opinion, but the same voter don’t turn out to the polling station.

Yogendra Yadav: Differential turnout is a real phenomenon, but that is not the real reason why polls go wrong when they do. Mostly polls in India go wrong due to poor sampling.

Srini:Quick Question, Prof YY. You mentioned during the UP Pre/Opinion Poll surveys that people voting for the BSP for e.g. tended to underplay their support, because of the ‘caste factor’. In essence, your statistical survey ran into a trouble of ‘falsification of preference’. Is there a similar factor in the Gujarat case? There could be two such falsifications: a) People underplay their support for Narendra Modi in the fear of being seen as supporters of Hindutva/the carnage, b) Overplay their support in the fear of being seen as opposed to the Hindutva/the carnage. How does your survey adjust for this ‘Falsification/Hiding of preference’? Next, has the survey considered the dissident factor? If yes, how did you do that? Thanks.

Yogendra Yadav: I have answered this above

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Kishore: Hi Sir, don’t you think that coming up with T-tapes just before the elections is a clear-cut alliance between the channel and Congress and why do you rake the Godhra issue every time before the elections in spite of Modi winning with a thumping majority last time after the incident? What would have been the reaction of any political party in India had the incident occurred with the Hindus instead of minorities?

Yogendra Yadav: No, I don’t see any such alliance. In any case, political observers said that the expose might help Mr Modi! Some questions cannot and must not be settled by majority vote. Massacre of any community is one of those questions.

Prashant: Usually, Congress garners more support among women than men. How does it fair among men and women respondents in your opinion poll for Gujarat? It is not reported in tables.

Yogendra Yadav: We have not found any significant difference and hence did not report.

Sundararaman: Yesterday when you concluded the programme, you had a sense of frustration that Modi is likely to come back to power. How much of this bias has impacted to your study either way?

Yogendra Yadav: That is for you to judge. In 2002, just after the riots, we had projected him ahead of the Congress by 15 per cents. I believe in keeping my political opinion and assessment separate, as must be evident to you.

Prashant Deshpande: Prof Yadav, I have a curiosity about the trade secret of psephologists. What method do you adopt to convert the vote shares of parties from opinion surveys into the Assembly seats? Do you count the number of seats with small victory margins from the previous election and based on the regionwise per cent swing in your opinion poll to predict which seats would change hands? If not, do you employ any more scientific method for this purpose?

Yogendra Yadav: It is a sophisticated statistical model evolved by Professor Karandikar. This takes into account what you mention, and much more.

Ajay Gupta: Hi Yogendra, can you see the magic of Rahul Gandhi reflect in the Gujarat election?

Yogendra Yadav: No.

Mathew: Isn’t it the BJP (read Modi) that is setting the agenda of this election? In 2002, they wanted a highly polarized electorate, and they orchestrated the genocide and got what they wanted. This time also it was Modi who set forth the development agenda (for he thinks that will work this time and moreover he has an eye at the national politics), and everybody is reacting to that agenda. The saddest part is that next time around, if the BJP wants a communally-frenzied agenda, they can easily push it to the mainstream. And I am sure Modi will be around then also. The only hope lies in the fact that Arun Jaitley (and quite a few other second rung leaders) would not like Modi to win this time. I am not belittling the efforts of others in defeating Modi, but it seems that the Congress is not doing much towards that goal. Your take.

Yogendra Yadav: I generally agree with you. Congress is playing on a wicket prepared by Modi.

Mohammad Aqleem: Gujarat chunaaw mein kya Modi Hindutwa ke mudde par hi larenge?

Yogendra Yadav: No, it does not suit Modi any more.

BS Negi: Dear Yadav, as per your pre-poll survey for the Gujarat Assembly General Election, the BJP is in a winning situation followed by Indian National Congress. If Modi wins, will it be a victory of democracy or Banana-Republic? Will this mandate uphold the true spirit of Republic for which 'Bapu' and Nehru along with others made a endless struggle? Will the dream of Gandhi be fulfilled by this mandate? In my opinion, it will be a victory of dark side of democracy and will compel the society to have a big introspection for the survival of unity and integrity of Indian state. It is a demerit and dark side of democracy that after 1990, the law-breaker are being made lawmaker through ballot box. It is an issue of serious concern for the survival of this nascent democracy of 60 years old. By this process there has evolved a nexus among politicians, bureaucrats and mafias, which is a serious threat to the unity and Integrity of the nation. In my opinion, this threat is larger and bigger than terrorists and communal riots. In other word, this nexus is the greatest threat to India since Independence. It is my humble request to wake up the public through mass movement against all the nexus of politicians, bureaucrats and mafias for the survival of Indian Republic. Thanks.

Yogendra Yadav: Since similar concern has been raised by many other questioners as well, let me clarify it once. I do think that Modi’s victory in 2002 showed a Dark Side of Democracy: the vulnerability of democracy to majoritarian excesses. I don’t think the media is raking the riots now. It is our duty to remember this, just as it should be our duty to remember the plight of the Kashmiri Pandits whether or not they matter in the Kashmir elections. Having said this, I think it would be wrong to blame Mr Modi or the BJP alone for this tragedy. Congress' inability to stand up to rising communalism and its refusal to take a principled stand on secularism is as much responsible for this. And let us not forget, all of us are also to be blamed to this failure.