Will 'The House' Put Tuki's House in Order?

When Nabam Tuki came to power in 2011, he was a worried man. He knew ruling Arunachal was not an easy task - in the last one decade there has been five chief ministers in the state.

Then, legend has it, Tuki consulted a Vaastu specialist to rectify the structural errors in the CM's bungalow. For a while it seemed the jinx was fixed. While Congress was being wiped off from other parts of the country, Tuki managed to win an overwhelming 40+ seats in Arunachal. Later, with some more jumping on board, his strength went up to 47.

But alas, five years down the line, the magic faded. Arunachal Pradesh was back in political turmoil. The rebel group leader Kalikho Pul managed to topple him with some active support from Governor Rajhkhowa. While Pul became the Chief Minister and began taking regular administrative decisions, Tuki did not quite give it up. Some say, this faith was not just because of Kapil Sibal's legal prowess.

Now that he is back in power, the Vaastu legend is only growing. But can this correction also correct his number game? Though Tuki has become the Chief Minister, he will face a huge credibility issue, till he passes the floor test. And the numbers are stacked heavily against him.

Kalikho Pul claims he has the support of 43 MLAs. In a press conference in Guwahati, Pul paraded 43 MLAs in a show-of-strength press conference. As Tuki takes charge, all eyes are on that floor test which will happen on July 16.

In March after the Pul Govt was sworn in, more Congress MLAs joined them. Soon Kalikho Pul and 29 other rebel Congress MLAs merged with the Peoples' Party of Arunachal (PPA). This effectively means Congress is left with just 15 MLAs. But nothing about Arunachal is simple, definitely not the politics.

Supreme Court said the situation pre-15th December 2015 would continue. On that date the position of the floor was different. The effective strength of the House was 58, 21 MLAs had rebelled and of them 14 were disqualified for not toeing the party line. The disqualification order came on 13TH December, if this order stands then the strength of the house goes down to 44 and hence half way mark at 22.

There are 11 BJP MLAs who are sure to vote against the government. There are also 2 independents who, conventional wisdom shows, go with whoever is in power. Total Congress MLAs in the house now is 31, of them 7 are those who rebelled before December 15. By this calculation, Congress should scrape through the confidence motion.

But Tuki has just two days to prove his majority. And and this could well prove to be his biggest hurdle.