Stock Market Trends: Analysts said that market sentiments this week will be influenced by domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and foreign investor trading activity.
Following a record rally, markets might experience volatility due to elevated valuations. Investors will also monitor the global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar exchange rate for additional cues.
“Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy. The upcoming Union Budget in July has become the next focal point, with high expectations for growth-oriented policies,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Market sentiment will be gauged by closely monitoring foreign and domestic institutional investors’ activity (FII and DII) and crude oil prices, he said.
On the global front, the US market has experienced some profit-booking from higher levels. Key economic data, such as the US job openings report, will be released on July 2, 2024, followed by the US ISM Services PMI data on July 3, 2024, he noted.
“Additionally, the US Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell’s speech is scheduled for July 2, 2024, and the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be released on July 3, 2024. The movement of dollar index and US bond yields will also be crucial factors to watch,” Gour added.
Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 1,822.83 points or 2.36 per cent, and the Nifty climbed 509.5 points or 2.16 per cent.
The Sensex recorded the best monthly gain in June by climbing 7.14 per cent.
The Sensex breached the historic 79,000 mark on Thursday, and the Nifty hit the 24,000 level for the first time in intra-day trade.
“The outlook for the market will be guided by major domestic and global economic data such as HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, HSBC India Services PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Fed speech, initial jobless claims this week,” Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said.
After hitting a fresh all-time high level in early trade on Friday, the BSE 30-share index declined 210.45 points or 0.27 per cent to settle at 79,032.73. During the day, it jumped 428.4 points or 0.54 per cent to hit a record peak of 79,671.58.
The Nifty went lower by 33.90 points or 0.14 per cent to 24,010.60. During the day, it climbed 129.5 points or 0.53 per cent to hit a new lifetime high of 24,174.
“We expect this positive momentum to continue at a steady pace with stock-specific action. However, the release of economic data points this week would keep a little volatility in the market. Sector like auto is expected to be in the limelight with release of their monthly sales number,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Senior Group VP, Head – Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
As the new month begins, market participants will closely watch auto sales data to start with, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
“Besides, progress of monsoon will also be in focus. Global cues, especially from the US, indicate a supportive outlook, with major indices continuing their upward trend despite intermittent consolidation,” he said.
Mcap of Nine of Top-10 Most Valued Firms Jumps Rs 2.89 Lakh Cr
Nine of the top-10 most valued firms together added Rs 2,89,699.42 crore in market valuation last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer, in line with a rally in equities.
While Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and ITC were the gainers, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) emerged as the laggard.
The market capitalisation (mcap) of Reliance Industries jumped Rs 1,52,264.63 crore to Rs 21,18,951.20 crore.
TCS added Rs 34,733.64 crore taking its valuation to Rs 14,12,845.09 crore.
The mcap of ICICI Bank soared Rs 30,286.99 crore to Rs 8,44,201.88 crore and that of Bharti Airtel surged Rs 18,267.7 crore to Rs 8,22,530.35 crore.
The market valuation of Infosys climbed Rs 14,656.3 crore to Rs 6,50,602.10 crore and that of HDFC Bank zoomed Rs 13,808.74 crore to Rs 12,80,865.43 crore.
State Bank of India’s valuation rallied Rs 11,111.14 crore to Rs 7,57,565.68 crore.
The mcap of Hindustan Unilever went up by Rs 7,953.37 crore to Rs 5,81,570.83 crore and that of ITC climbed Rs 6,616.91 crore to Rs 5,30,475.82 crore.
However, the valuation of LIC tumbled Rs 22,042.61 crore to Rs 6,25,573.90 crore.
Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm, followed by TCS, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Infosys, LIC, Hindustan Unilever and ITC.
(With PTI inputs)
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