Many interesting battles will take place in Uttar Pradesh’s phase-4 elections today; with some bastions of the BJP and Congress set for litmus tests. While the earlier three phases had majorly seen Jat, Muslim equations, and large pockets of traditional Yadav strongholds, this time, the regions going to polls are not defined by any dominant narrative.
So, which way will these areas ‘swing?’ A number of factors may decide. Let’s take a look at key seats up for grabs today, and what could make for victory for its contenders.
Lucknow Cantt
This seat will be contested by BJP’s Brajesh Pathak and SP’s Surendra Singh Gandhi. Pathak is currently the Minister for Law, Justice, and Rural Engineering Service in Yogi Adityanath’s Cabinet. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the BJP’s Rita Bahuguna Joshi defeated the then-SP candidate Aparna Yadav by a margin of 33,796 votes and was inducted as a Minister. However, after being elected to the Lok Sabha from Allahabad in the 2019 General Election, she was forced to resign from the Assembly.
Though Suresh Chandra Tiwari won the by-election, there was speculation that Aparna Yadav, who recently joined the BJP, and Rita Bahuguna Joshi’s son Mayank were also in the running for the party ticket. Pathak, a sitting MLA from Lucknow Central, was eventually nominated from Lucknow Cantonment. Dilpreet Singh Virk of the Congress and Anil Pandey of the BSP are the other main contenders.
Sitapur
A former stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, this seat was taken over by the BJP in 2017, ending the party’s 20-year reign.
The BJP’s Rakesh Rathore ‘Guru’ had deposed SP stalwart Radhey Shyam Jaiswal, who had been elected to the seat four times since 1996. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the seat will see another close battle between the two candidates.
Rae Bareli
This high-profile constituency, a Congress stronghold for the majority of the last five decades, had been won by Aditi Singh, who recently defected from the INC to the BJP. Her father, Akhilesh Singh, had been the Rae Bareli MLA since 1993.
The party has now fielded a well-known local doctor, Manish Singh Chauhan, who will compete for the Congress bastion against the BJP’s Aditi Singh, the AAP’s Gaurav Singh, and the SP’s R P Yadav.
Lucknow East
With 4.51 lakh voters, this constituency has been a BJP stronghold since the 1991 state Assembly elections, and has voted for a saffron party candidate in every election held in the last three decades.
The incumbent MLA from this seat, UP Cabinet Minister of Urban Employment and Poverty Alleviation Ashutosh Tandon Gopal, is running for re-election to the Assembly from this BJP stronghold.
Sarojini Nagar
In a significant move, the BJP has fielded former Enforcement Directorate Joint Director Rajeshwar Singh in this seat previously held by Swati Singh. In the UP government, the latter is the Independent Charge of Women’s Welfare and Child Development and Nutrition. Rajeshwar Singh, who holds a BTech and a PhD in policy, human rights, and social justice, was appointed to the ED in 2007. During his tenure, he looked into a number of high-profile scams, including the 2G spectrum allocation case, the AgustaWestland helicopter deal, the Aircel Maxis scam, the Amrapali scam, the Noida Ponzi scam, and the Gomti riverfront scam. SP has placed its trust in former UP Minister Abhishek Mishra. Rudra Daman Singh and Mohd. Jalees Khan have been nominated by the Congress and the BSP, respectively.
Lakhimpur Kheri
This constituency is viewed as a high-stakes battleground for the BJP and the opposition in the aftermath of the October 3, 2021 violence, which resulted in the deaths of eight people, including four farmers. While Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra’s son Ashish Mishra has been named as the main accused in the case, he was released from jail a week ago after the Allahabad High Court granted him bail. The opposition has been outraged that Mishra has not been removed from the Union Cabinet.
Yogesh Verma, the BJP candidate, won Lakhimpur in 2017 by a margin of more than 37,000 votes over his nearest rival, Utkarsh Verma Madhur of the SP. Surprisingly, the SP has placed its trust in Madhur, who won this seat in 2012 by defeating the BSP’s Gyan Prakash Bajpai. Mohan Bajpai of the BSP and Ravishankar Trivedi of the Congress are also running in Lakhimpur.
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