Driving from the eastern end of Rajasthan in Jhalawar to its western end of the Thar desert takes over 12 hours. During News18’s journey of over 2,000 km last week in the poll-bound state last week, five words emerged the most in our conversations with the Rajasthani voters.
Paper leak, freebies, the Modi factor versus CM face, Rajput-Gujjar votes and Hindutva – these were the five buzzwords that may well determine who wins the desert state come December 3. On test is the tradition in Rajasthan of voting out the incumbent government, as has been the case for almost three decades. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believes it has an edge because of that plus the anger among people over the rampant paper leaks in the past four years – an issue that the BJP is doubling down on. Congress CM Ashok Gehlot believes he can break the rivaaz with his freebies – and the Congress is doubling down on its ‘guarantees’.
1. PAPER LEAK GHOST
On the day the Enforcement Directorate (ED) conducted raids on state Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra in a paper leak case, the BJP happened to release their poll song titled ‘Modi Sathe Aaapno Rajasthan’ with the paper leak issue highlighted right up. With close to 18 paper leaks in the past four years, there is palpable anger among people News18 met in Rajasthan about the government’s failure to stop them. The BJP has upped the stakes after the ED raids on Dotasra, alleging that the links of the racket go right up. The people also feel some ‘big fish’ are involved.
Even in Gehlot’s turf in Jodhpur, we found locals upset over the paper leak matter, pointing out how it impacts a whole family. Sachin Pilot had made it an issue against his own government, making Gehlot bring in a new law. Dotasra says he had asked Gehlot to get a detailed probe done and nothing against him was found by the Rajasthan police. “The ED is under pressure," Gehlot told News18. But the BJP has an upper hand now with the ED action in Rajasthan. “Why be scared if you are clean," Union Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal has asked Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot.
Advantage: BJP
2. FREEBIE ‘GUARANTEES’
One thing you will see the most on Rajasthan roads, be it in urban or rural areas, are the ‘Chiranjeevi’ ambulances running to the aid of people. The Rs 25-lakh ‘Chiranjeevi’ medical insurance scheme for all families by the Gehlot government is a big hit, and people are high on praise for it as not only is free treatment on offer, but also free medicines.
“People are worried that if we got out of power, the BJP will stop the scheme," Gehlot says, to cash in on people’s sentiments. He has also been giving free 100 units of power and LPG cylinders at Rs 500.
To extract electoral benefits, Gehlot has now promised seven more ‘guarantees’ if he comes to power again — like Rs 10,000 a year for the woman head of every family, free laptops/tablets for college students, a law on Old Pension Scheme and English-medium education. “Aap maangte maangte thak jaoge, mein dete dete nahin thakunga," Gehlot says as his USP. The BJP has not much to counter this so far, except its state president CP Joshi saying, “Jinki khud ki koi guarantee nahi, unki guarantee kaun manega."
Advantage: Congress
3. MUKHYAMANTRI KAUN?
There is no clear CM face in both the camps, with the BJP fighting the election in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while Ashok Gehlot has made it aptly clear in the Congress camp that he is in no mood to hang his boots yet. The BJP’s tallest face in the state in public perception till 2018, Vasundhara Raje, had to wait till the second list to get a ticket. She has not been heard or seen much in the campaign so far. In the Congress, it is mostly Gehlot as the face and the voice of the campaign so far, although Pilot is expected to campaign across the state soon.
Among the people, it is a Gehlot versus Modi fight this time. “Modi will come…we do not care who he sends as the CM. We are voting for Modi," a group of locals in Jaipur told News18. Far-off in Raje’s Jhalarpatan, locals say the BJP could pay a price for sidelining Raje. Congress voters also say that Modi won’t come to Jaipur to become the CM. But even some loyal Congress voters are upset over the Gehlot vs Pilot war over the past five years. “The governance suffered," some said.
A picture of unity has been projected in the Congress, but the BJP reminds how infighting had drowned the Congress in Punjab. “We want work, not fights. The BJP is clear — whoever Modi chooses is fine," said a group of voters in Kota.
Advantage: BJP
4. RAJPUT-GUJJAR VOTES
The 2018 election saw Rajputs move away from the BJP and Gujjars vote for the Congress — twin factors that led to the Congress win. While the Rajputs in Mewar were upset with CM Vasundhara Raje in 2018, the Gujjars in East Rajasthan flocked to the Congress thinking Sachin Pilot would be the Chief Minister.
The Congress swept East Rajasthan and weakened the stronghold of the BJP over Mewar in 2018 polls, to get a lead.
But this time, both these factors have subsided. The BJP has tried hard to win back the Rajput votes and Gujjars appear disappointed over Pilot’s ‘humiliation’. MP Diya Kumari from the Jaipur royal family is fighting from a seat in Jaipur and is a CM probable. She has been instrumental in bringing two Rajput leaders from Mewar and Marwar into the BJP fold – Vishwaraj Singh Mewar and Bhawani Singh Kalvi. This is expected to cut the losses of the BJP from 2018.
On an even keel: BJP and Congress
5. HINDUTVA TRUMP CARD?
An undercurrent that News18 found in conversations with voters across the state was a feeling among Hindu voters that they want the BJP to come to power as they feel the Gehlot government has appeased the Muslims. The Kanhaiya Lal murder in Udaipur seems a watershed incident that most voters speak about, pointing out how such brutality is unheard of in the ‘peaceful’ state. We met a group of youngsters in Tonk who took offence when we asked if they were Pilot supporters. Tonk has a considerable Muslim population. “We are with the BJP. We sport the tilak," they told us.
The Ram temple inauguration date is further being spoken about by the BJP to rally the majority vote. However, many voters also say that Rajasthan’s culture has never been to vote on communal lines and the BJP’s card won’t work. Gehlot told News18 that he worked the most for “Hindu sentiments and cow welfare". But this issue is now being spoken about more among voters than the ‘red diary’ corruption issue or the crimes against women.
On an even keel: BJP and Congress
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