2022 is an election year for Uttarakhand, and like every poll season, brings the question – will the hill state, for the first time since its formation in 2000, re-elect the party in power for a second consecutive term.
The BJP is riding high on the ‘double engine’ mantra – having the same party in power at the Centre and in the state – and is confident of breaking the jinx.
“The BJP is known for giving surprises. We are winning the upcoming elections… Wait and watch, we will break this myth. Uttarakhand will create history by giving the BJP one more chance,” Chief Minister Pushkar Dhami had told News18 in an interview last month.
The contest in Uttarakhand has thus far been bipolar, with the Congress and the BJP alternating in power. But this time, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party has entered the fray to shake things up a little.
And if the hectic pace of developments in 2021 is any indication, 2022 promises to be no less exciting politically.
Action started in March 2021 when the BJP replaced its ‘unpopular’ CM Trivendra Rawat with Tirath Rawat, with just a year to go for elections. But in less than four months, Tirath Rawat’s controversial statements and the Covid-19 testing fiasco at Kumbh Mela saw him exit too, and in came Pushkar Dhami, relatively a newbie in the big league.
While the BJP changed CMs twice in a matter of months, the Congress sensed an opportunity at power and started putting its house in order. Former chief minister Harish Rawat started consolidating power and position as the head of the campaign committee with confidant Ganesh Godiyal as state unit chief. The Congress also managed to engineer a defection in the BJP, bringing back to its fold cabinet minister and prominent Dalit leader Yashpal Arya and his MLA-son.
Poll Recap
A look at the vote share of parties in Assembly elections from 2002 to 2012, throws up an interesting factoid – irrespective of which party came to power, the margin in vote share was narrow. This changed in 2017 when the BJP polled a whopping 47%, while the Congress hovered at 33%.
Riding high on the Narendra Modi wave and strong anti-incumbency against the Harish Rawat government, the BJP swept the last Assembly elections with 57 seats in the 70-member Assembly, the best performance by any party in the state.
“Last time, parties like the BSP, regional party the UKD and some other outfits lost considerable vote share to the BJP. This time, the AAP is here and is expected to get at least 10% votes. Moreover, the BSP is trying to regain lost ground. For the BJP, which is facing internal challenges, it is not going to be a cake-walk to repeat its 2017 performance,” says political commentator Manmohan Bhatt.
Why Uttarakhand is Crucial for BJP
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed an election rally in Dehradun. A day after Diwali, he was in Kedarnath, ahead of the shrine’s closing for winter. The PM is expected to address another rally in the state by the end of this month.
“The PM has a strong connection with Uttarakhand and he repeatedly shows concern for the development of the state,” says BJP state president Madan Kaushik.
For the last few years, reconstruction projects have been going on in Kedarnath and now go-ahead has been given for the renovation of the Badrinath shrine. Moreover, the controversial Devasthanam Act aimed at controlling Char Dhams has also been repealed.
“Uttarakhand is significant for the BJP as far as Hindu politics is concerned. Losing Uttarakhand will mean dent to its Hindu image,” says senior journalist Avikal Thapliyal.
Where Does the Congress Stand?
Uttarakhand is of the few states where the Congress sees a ray of hope and expects to capitalise on the anti-incumbency votes. The party has not projected any chief ministerial face yet, but Harish Rawat, who is considered the de facto candidate, has said of late that he would “someday” like to see a Dalit CM head the Congress government in the state. The statement is seen as a nod to Dalit leader Yashpal Arya, a veteran Congressman who had switched over to the BJP in 2017 but is back in the grand old party now.
It is, however, not clear who will hold the reins if the Congress wins in Uttarakhand — Harish Rawat or Yashpal Arya?
“These issues are decided at a later stage by the central leadership. There is no dearth of faces. Is my face bad?” quips Leader of Opposition Pritam Singh smiling.
Harish Rawat, too, has been non-committal on the issue, saying it’s a tough fight and priority is forming the government first. “Political equations are changing. Non-serious players are intending to take space,” says Rawat in an indirect reference to the AAP.
But the AAP has promised surprises too. “Uttarakhand is done with the BJP and the Congress. Believe me, voters will give surprising results,” says party leader and Delhi deputy CM Manish Sisodia.
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