The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has worn its national ambitions on its sleeve since its birth. In fact, the party decided to contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls across the country less than just two years after its formation, with the dare of national convener Arvind Kejriwal for AAP to “go for broke” in the thrall of the aftermath of the anti-corruption movement led by activist Anna Hazare. However, two general elections and forays into many states brought home the work the party still had to do if it has to become a ‘national party’. As of date, though, AAP is the only party, apart from the big two of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, which has a government in one state and is the principal opposition party in another. It has formed the government in Delhi for the third consecutive time and is the main opposition party in neighbouring Punjab with 20 MLAs. Though Delhi may be a union territory, the fact is that AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal has made the BJP ruling at the Centre and the powerful Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo taste defeat in the national capital. Repeatedly. And, for two consecutive elections, the Congress, which ruled Delhi for 15 straight years, does not have a single MLA in the Delhi assembly. In 2022, AAP seeks to rupture the barrier of a regional party as it looks for fresh pastures in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. The failure of the grand old party to either hold the government together as in Madhya Pradesh, or form the government in Goa despite emerging as the single-largest party, and the steady erosion of its bench strength, has provided fresh fuel to AAP’s fire of rapidly spreading its wings by capitalising on this moment in history, going for the kill in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. And, the party is already in campaign mode in all these states.
“I think there is no thought process that we are replacing the Congress. We are not here to replace the Congress or BJP. We are here to create our own space. And obviously, our space will come from the Congress, will come from the BJP, and also from the regional parties wherever we are contesting,” asserts AAP chief spokesperson Saurabh Bhardwaj. However, he goes on to add that in states where there are two parties, there is more need, more demand, more desperation in the people to see a third alternative force that brings something new to this political platter. Aam Aadmi Party MLA Raghav Chadha, also a member of the party national executive and the powerful political affairs committee, leans on the developments in the Congress party in Goa to argue that AAP is both the opposition to the BJP and the alternative to the Congress, not just in the coastal state but across India. “What is happening in Goa is very interesting and this will give you a glimpse into what potential AAP has at the pan-India level. Political power in Goa has swung between the two dominant parties, the BJP and the Congress. However, despite emerging as the single largest party in 2017, Congress not only failed to form the government but subsequently could not prevent the defection of an overwhelming majority of their elected MLAs into the BJP. Congress has essentially converted its MLAs into a tradeable commodity in Goa. Therefore, there is a lot of hatred for them in Goa and they are looking at AAP with a lot of hope,” he said.
While in Goa a few days ago, Kejriwal had quoted opinion polls done by local channels and said that slowly AAP is becoming the first option. “I have seen a couple of surveys. At the moment BJP is at no. 1 in those TV surveys, AAP is at no. 2 and Congress seems to be collapsing,” he said. It is in this seeming collapse of the Congress party that AAP senses a great opportunity.
Punjab
The current crisis in Punjab Congress confirms the reading within AAP that the party will implode and the appointment of Charanjeet Singh Channi as the state’s first Dalit chief minister is simply not enough to stem the internal haemorrhage. The very fact that the Congress party had to let go of Captain Amarinder Singh is proof, AAP says, of non-performance. Asked whether the Aam Aadmi party will be forced to recalibrate its strategy, Chadha said that the AAP strategy is to continue working on the ground, execute campaigns at the grassroots, reach out to every household, and seek votes for change. Harpal Singh Cheema, the leader of the opposition from AAP in Punjab and its most prominent Dalit face is confident that three months is simply not enough for the Congress to come good on its tall poll promises whether it is about providing jobs to every household or justice in the 2015 Guru Granth Sahib desecration case. “People will not forgive the Congress so easily,” said Cheema, asserting that Channi has been made the chief minister for just three months. “They (the Congress) must have done its surveys and must have known that the ground has slipped under their feet in Punjab. This is the reason they must have thought of changing the CM with the hope of making some gains. However, as I understand, the Congress will not gain anything out of this one move.”
There has been a lot of debate in Punjab about whether the move of the Congress party would lead to the 32% of Dalits consolidating behind it, whether the very public rejection of Sunil Jakhar, on the grounds that a Hindu cannot be the chief minister, alienate the Hindus from the party, so far the core supporters of the Congress party in Punjab. And who will the other powerful community, the Jat Sikh, rally behind? Dr Pramod Kumar, director, Institute of Development and Communication, is scathing in his reading of the manner in which the Congress appointed Channi as the Dalit chief minister. “It is a different matter that a Hindu might not have become the CM of Punjab, but when actively stated, it is called activated discrimination,” he said. Dr Kumar pointed out that the Congress party repeated the same thing by replacing a Jat Sikh like Randhava with a Dalit face, so Jats are feeling very upset. According to Dr Kumar, the Congress divided politics in Punjab into caste categories where the caste system is the weakest. “Mayawati had to leave Punjab and go to Uttar Pradesh to capitalise on the caste system as in Punjab, because of Sikhism and Arya Samaj, the caste system is weak. You (Congress ) are reviving the caste system and you think that you can regain power. So you have antagonised the Hindus by making them feel discriminated as a Hindu minority, and Jats by saying that a Dalit will become the chief minister, you will not be. Because you are publicly humiliating a Jat, after first announcing and then declaring that he cannot be in the evening,” he said. Even though the Akalis along with the BJP are facing the brunt of farmers’ anger over the farm bills, Dr Kumar believes that their dissociation from the Bharatiya Janata Party, alliance with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and resignation from the union cabinet will ensure that they reap the advantage. So, in such a situation, the advantage cannot go to AAP as the party is not well-entrenched either through history or through its politics with any larger group be it the Jats, Hindus or traders. “They are taking only the third alternative seekers from all the sections, which will never become the core, it will remain only in the periphery,” he said.
However, Professor Ronki Ram has a completely different point of view. “Channi or no Channi, it is an idea whose time has come and while parties had promised that if elected, a Dalit would be the CM, the Congress gave currency to the idea. While it is anyone’s guess whether Channi would continue or not, but the point is that aspirations are raised to a level from where you cannot bring them down. 33% of the population is very happy. It has led to the consolidation of the SC,” he said. The SAD-BSP alliance, Prof Ram believes, is another reason that could push Dalits towards the Congress. “The BSP has aligned with the Akalis, which has made them a bit unhappy. So, they are saying, ‘let us go back to the old fort, the Congress’,” he said.
Unlike Dr Pramod Kumar, Professor Ram believes that the appointment of a Dalit as a CM face will not lead to polarisation of either Hidus or Jat Sikhs. As far as AAP is concerned, according to Prof Ram, Channi’s ‘aam aadmi’ image, humble roots shorn of the pelf of power and privilege, rising through the ranks with sheer hard work would make him the ‘big wall’ before the rising popularity of the Aam Aadmi Party.
Perhaps it is too much to expect a party that entered Punjab barely six years ago and also witnessed a series of internal churnings to also throw up its own homespun ‘tall leader’, ‘tried and tested’, extraordinary enough to command the trust and acceptance of all social groups.
“Who is their leader in Punjab?” asks Prof Ronki Ram, reeling off big names that the state has produced whether they have made it to the chief minister’s chair or not.
Dr Pramod Kumar believes that AAP has not been able to penetrate “the cultural domain of politics” in Punjab and is yet to have hegemony over even one dominant group, and unless it has that, it cannot become dominant. Sources indicate the party has no plans of announcing its chief ministerial face anytime soon: its biggest calling card in Punjab is its national convener Arvind Kejriwal and the “Kejriwal model of development”.
Everyone that this correspondent spoke to, harped on the “syncretic culture” of Punjab where the same people go to a “nathdwara, a yogi centre, a gurdwara, a temple, a mosque”, which has ensured that Punjab does not get divided along communal lines. “1984 did not divide Punjab. Operation Blue Star did not divide Punjab. Three wars, 1962, 1965 and 1971, kept the Punjab fort together,” asserted Prof Ram. Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) believes that AAP is a serious challenger in Punjab. “A party getting 20% to 25% of the votes in a triangular contest is a serious challenger, whether the party manages to win elections or not. I think the contest is likely to be between the SAD and the Congress, but I think it is too early. We can only say what we see at the moment. It is very difficult to predict what is going to happen in February,” he said. Sanjay Kumar also doubts that the Congress house can be put in order as “Amarinder Singh is not going to give up so easily; at the least, he could play the role of a serious spoiler”.
Goa
Pointing to the Mood of the Nation opinion poll, Raghav Chadha argued that the BJP’s Pramod Sawant is one of the worst-performing chief ministers and while the people of Goa want a change, they are looking more and more towards AAP, as Congress cannot be that change. The party is closely watching the entry of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC. And in spite of the high-profile joining like that of ex-Goa chief minister Luizinho Faleiro into Trinamool’s fold, the party is underplaying the impact it would have on its own prospects. “I would rather limit my comments on Goa to parties and individuals who are players in Goa. Historically, only the Congress and BJP are players,” was Chadha’s critical response on the entry of the TMC in Goa. AAP Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh also played down the impact TMC’s entry in Goa would have on his party. “There is a party which has already fought an election there. There is a party which has been working on the ground for a long time, has a connection. What impact can one have if one suddenly enters the electoral scene?” he said. AAP is also relying on the work done by its volunteers during the second wave of Covid in Goa this year to underline the advantage it enjoys in terms of perception. “During the second wave of Covid, AAP was the only party that was working on the ground, giving ration to people, distributing oximeters, taking people to hospitals, when the MLAs were missing, the politicians were missing and the government of Goa was completely missing in action…completely. The chief minister of Goa was nowhere to be seen. Woh chief minister ghar pe kambal dal ke baith gaya (The chief minister was sitting cosily at home). That does not fly in Goa,” said Chadha. Despite having run a very robust campaign in Goa in 2017, the party could not win a single seat. So what is different now? “AAP 2017 Goa is very different from AAP 2022 Goa,” asserted Chadha, adding that the way the party is going about it, the way it is reaching out, the manner of communicating with the people, is all different. The party is sticking to its campaign template of the staggered release of its manifesto promises by AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal and has been successful in creating a buzz in the state. No decision has been taken on the party’s chief ministerial face or whether it will go into elections with a chief ministerial face in Goa.
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand’s politics has also been dominated by the Congress and the BJP. It is the only state where AAP has already declared a chief ministerial face in retired Army officer, Colonel Ajay Kothiyal. It is an interesting move considering that one in almost three households has a person serving in the Army. By declaring Col Kothiyal as the CM face, AAP is clearly targeting a third of the electorate: people serving in the Army, retired servicemen and their families, believed to be the traditional supporters of the BJP. Kejriwal has already made a slew of promises, notably making Uttarakhand the spiritual capital for Hindus across the world, and subsequently held a ‘Tiranga Yatra’ or roadshow there, which attracted robust numbers. “The biggest challenge when you enter a new state is winning the trust of the people,” said AAP leader Durgesh Pathak. The ruling BJP has changed its chief minister twice this year alone, opening itself to charges of non-performance. And while both the Congress and AAP will seek to exploit the issue, it is AAP that has gone to town claiming that the change of chief ministers in Uttarakhand and other states is due to the threat posed by the party’s entry. Saurabh Bhardwaj says that AAP’s entry into the states of Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Punjab is making political parties “nervous”. “Obviously, you can see that they are trying to pre-empt AAP’s surge in states and that itself is proof that they are scared of AAP and AAP is emerging as a big alternative in the political scene,” he said.
Gujarat
In 2017, Kejriwal had given a call to supporters in Gujarat to vote for the party that is best placed to defeat the BJP. In 2021, it is a completely different story. AAP’s performance in the Surat municipal polls where it replaced Congress by winning 27 seats, making inroads into the powerful Patidar community, while the BJP retained power winning 93 seats, has changed things dramatically. The Congress party failed to open its account. AAP sought to capitalise on the moment with a roadshow by national convener Arvind Kejriwal in Surat, entering the lion’s den. “The day they (the people of Gujarat) start believing that AAP can form the government in Gujarat, they will stop voting for the BJP, they will stop voting for the Congress. And I think the threshold can be reached this election,” said Bhardwaj, adding that Surat has shown the way and he hopes that AAP will reach the threshold this year. Talk with anyone within the party, the refrain of a “fixed match” between the BJP and the Congress is the reason given for the BJP’s unchallenged rule in the state. Political analyst Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS is of the opinion that at best AAP can play the role of a spoiler for the Congress because it can damage Congress’s electoral prospects. “I don’t see results of municipal elections as an indicator of how people are likely to vote in the assembly elections. There is only one municipal election that is Surat, and I don’t see that as signs of support for AAP across the state,” he said, maintaining that the contest in Gujarat will be between the BJP and the Congress.
Uttar Pradesh
Perhaps UP is the toughest nut for AAP to crack, given its sheer size and the complexity of various caste dynamics. Asked about the party’s prospects in the state, its UP incharge Sanjay Singh said, “AAP is expanding rapidly in UP. The plethora of cases against us in UP, the robust presence of people in the ‘Tiranga Yatras’ or Town Hall meetings, is creating the perception of an articulate political opponent in the state. You will see a good performance from the party,” he said. More than seats, it is the vote share that the party could garner that is being watched in the state.
“Till the time Mr Rahul Gandhi is kept being shown as an alternative, Mr Modi will keep getting re-elected for another 500 years unless you show somebody else as an alternative,” said Saurabh Bhardwaj, arguing that it is the Congress that provides political oxygen to the BJP. He pointed out that in many states, where a third alternative has emerged, people have not returned to the Congress party: be it in Delhi, or the SP and BSP in UP, TDP or TRS in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and many more.
However, AAP, he believes, is an exception to this rule. ”It is just unfortunate that those regional parties could not go beyond their states but AAP is an exception. We do not wear any flavour of a region, we are very national in our flavour. So I don’t think we can be bound by that rule,” he said.
Seasoned political analyst Sanjay Kumar said that at the national level, it is still the Congress that remains the main challenger, though the gap between it and the BJP still remains very wide, adding that he does not see AAP bridging that gap.
AAP is now battle-hardened and battle-ready. Party chief Arvind Kejriwal has the stomach for the big fight and is known to be a great risk-taker. He has thrown a challenge to the BJP and the Congress by offering a model of development that invests heavily in education and health and has succeeded in bringing these areas into political discourse. He has not been shy of wearing his religion on his sleeve or appeal directly to the majority community. AAP is the youngest political party without any baggage. Can Arvind Kejriwal do what no other regional leader has done? 2022 may have some answers.
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