Iran may have reluctantly, in the absence of options, walked into Israel’s trap. It has so far fought the war against the Jewish state through its proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and even the Houthis, supplying them with ideology, weapons, training, safe havens, money, and resources. Every time, the Ayatollah regime has stayed in the background, making noise internationally but keeping an antiseptic distance as its terrorist footsoldiers carried out its outsourced war.
Recent events have gradually but firmly shut the door on that option. Israel, backed robustly by the United States and by and large all of the West, has brought the danger not just to Iran’s door but right into its drawing room, bedroom and kitchen.
Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 with a daring airstrike in the heart of Tehran’s supposedly airtight security environment. A day before that, Milad Bidi, a commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was killed in an Israeli airstrike which targeted top Hezbollah man Fuad Shukr in Beirut, Lebanon.
Last week, Israel eliminated the entire Hezbollah leadership including its chief Hassan Nasrullah in Lebanon. That was after its audacious pager blasts which killed and maimed thousands of Hezbollah operatives and Iranian state and non-state actors across the Middle East.
Iran has realised that Israel is now striking at will, with unmatched precision, and in places and ways previously unimaginable. The very head of the Islamist regime’s religious and political power, Ayatollah Khamenei, lies uneasy and in clear danger.
Iran had to enter the war itself. It was left with no choice. And that is what Israel has been waiting for so long.
It gives Israel and the US reason to derail and demolish Iran’s nuclear programme. In spite of a trillion-dollar hit to Iran’s economy through sanctions, and several targeted assassinations of its nuclear scientists and army commanders, its march towards becoming a nuclear state goes on. Contradictory stances in US foreign policy have helped Iran renew its nuclear ambitions and actions. A nuclear-armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel.
But an all-out war gives Israel a chance to completely crush Iran’s nuclear infrastructure before it is too late. It may also target the oil fields.
Iran’s aggression gives America the excuse to back Israel in that endeavour till the end. There is a strong political carrot as well. A resounding victory over Iran will also give Kamala Harris the badly needed fillip in the upcoming US elections.
Powerful Arab nations like Saudi and the UAE won’t intervene. They have refused to take Palestinian refugees and invite trouble at home. They are smart. They have started opening up their economies and societies to prepare for a post-oil world. With a defeated Iran, the way to joining the Abraham Accord with Israel and the US will be easier for Saudi and other Arab powers. They know that Iran and Turkey stand in the way of peace in the Middle East.
Many Islamists have invested hope in Russia to take on the US and Israel. A war-torn Russia won’t easily want to open another front. It is no friend of Islamists. Its alliance with Iran, Iraq, Syria or Turkey are strategic to counterbalance US influence in the Gulf.
China does not have a history of jumping into others’ conflicts. It is also not a friend of the Islamic order. Its help to Pakistan is solely predicated on Islamabad undermining New Delhi’s influence and exporting terror. At home, its treatment of ethnic Muslim groups like Huis and Uighurs is infamously brutal.
China will most likely watch the Middle East conflict from afar, at best covertly helping Iran with money and weapons.
India will make politically correct noises of peace and fairness and play from the shadows. It has a deep and extremely crucial relationship with Israel, which helped it during the Kargil War and numerous other occasions. India will surely extend covert intelligence and logistical help to Israel.
But India also has a longstanding traditional relationship with Iran, and more importantly, Russia. Although Khamenei has damaged that bond recently by bringing up the bogey of Muslim persecution in India, Delhi may still use its offices to try and bring about a solution.
In a nutshell, while it is a ripe opportunity for Israel and the US to go for the kill against Iran with overwhelming military superiority, the conflict may not lead to World War III. Too many powerful nations have too much at stake in not getting involved. They would rather be vocal spectators than gladiators in the arena.
Abhijit Majumder is a senior journalist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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