The world was stunned when Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel on Saturday. The most talked about is the fiasco of Israel’s intelligence which is however not unprecedented, as the 1973 Yom Kippur War is the prominent example when Israeli intelligence failed to detect the ensuing war. It is obvious that just like Rome was not built in a day, Hamas must have planned for this attack over a long period of time, gathering cross-border information and searching for loopholes in one of the world’s best intelligence frameworks.
Here, multiple factors are intricated when we try to contemplate the latest armed conflict. First of all, Hamas have played smart by mobilising their troops on Sabbath. Sabbath is the official day of rest for Jews from Friday evening to Saturday evening, where they devote the entire day to praying either at home or at synagogue. The country comes to a halt for 24 hours. There couldn’t have been any other appropriate day for striking the Israeli territory. Even during the Yom Kippur War, the enemy states took advantage of the Sabbath to attack the Jewish state.
Another factor that allowed Hamas to embark on this venture is Israel’s internal turmoil as the tiny country is reeling under continuous protests against the controversial Judicial overhaul plan put forth by the incumbent far-right government, spearheaded by Benjamin Netanyahu. Thousands of Israeli citizens have been thronging the streets to prevent its democracy from faltering. The tensions between people and the government have led to a bleak domestic situation. This is something which was exploited by the Hamas to fulfil their nefarious goal of storming Israel by surprise.
Apart from this, as the Israel-Saudi normalisation process is doing rounds, there are states like Iran that are uncomfortable with this upcoming de-escalation. And we should not forget the fact that Hamas is backed by Iran, so this assault on Israel has the entwined aim of disrupting or at least postponing the gush of a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran here has subtly signalled its presence in the Middle East and is going to remain entrenched in the shadow war with Israel. Also, this onslaught is likely going to reinforce the hardline tendencies of the Netanyahu government which is tied up by various ultra-orthodox parties. The compromise that Saudi seeks for Palestinians, in exchange for recognition of Israel, is going to further fonder, though the right-wing government of Israel wasn’t going to relinquish any inch of their biblical land to Palestine.
In addition, it has to be taken into account that this attempt by Hamas is not in any way linked to the “Liberation of Palestine”. However, the militant organisation, dubbed a terrorist group by many countries, is going to definitely portray before the Palestinians as the sole saviour of the Palestinian cause and showcase itself as the legitimate Palestinian Authority, representing the interests of the Palestinian population. As Fatah, which rules the West Bank and is the de jure Palestinian authority, has denounced violence, this again will be manipulated by Hamas for its gains. Hamas will build a vicious narrative that they are the ones who are prepared to sacrifice for their motherland, arousing nationalism among the Palestinians and therefore, garnering support among the people who already have limited choice.
Another element that needs consideration is that Saudis and Hamas do not have amicable relations as Hamas is supported by Iran which, though it has signed a normalisation treaty with Saudi Arabia, is its regional rival. Hamas and Saudi Arabia tried to mend their partnership but that was a transient phase.
Furthermore, if we look at the reactions of the world’s major countries, Saudi Arabia stands out because the Saudi foreign ministry’s response has been very much meticulous. The statement says “The kingdom calls for an immediate halt to the escalation between both sides, the protection of civilians, and restraint.” Further, the ministry goes on to state, “The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.”
It is quite significant to decode Saudi’s response because it has been vocal, time and again when it comes to throwing brickbats at Israel. But this fighting between Israel and the Palestinian faction comes at a time when the greatest rapprochement is set to take place in the Middle East which is the outcome of the tough grind of several years, and as MBS remarked both the countries are closest than ever for normalization, which neither party wants to jeopardise. Therefore, Saudis in their statement have not directly blamed Israelis for the attack but simultaneously, have expressed their concern for the Palestinian civilians, which depicts them as the Palestinian sympathiser without harming their fragile relations with Israel.
In conclusion, this asymmetric warfare between Israel and Hamas is barely going to affect Israel’s capabilities given its superior technology. It is just going to bring Hamas into the limelight among the Palestinians and the world and might as well defer the agreement between Saudis and Israel a little.
Anjali has completed her Masters in International Relations and Area Studies. Her interest lies in geopolitics of Middle East and North Africa with special focus on Israel’s domestic politics and its foreign policy. Currently, she is working as a geopolitical risk intern. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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