Election results are out. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has returned for a historic third term in office, but this time, with a reduced majority and as part of a coalition. The days when his party could single-handedly push its own agenda are now over. India has had coalition governments before, some of which have survived complete tenures. Examples of this include the governments of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh.
Simultaneously, coalitions can impose roadblocks on what the government seeks to implement, based on their individual party’s interests. With a stronger Opposition to keep a check, the government would need to tread carefully. The ability to swiftly enact bills and decisions, as seen in the previous two terms, may require greater negotiation and compromise in this new political landscape. The government would need to garner support from members of the Opposition also, most of whom do not see eye-to-eye on multiple issues, in addition to its allies. This would impose political costs, none of which are insurmountable.
The two major allies of the government are state political parties, which would be seeking benefits for their state, thereby ensuring their return to power in future elections. Hence, their interest would remain largely on domestic issues.
There has been no mention of a ‘common minimum programme’, possibly because the coalition is not as diverse as the earlier ones. However, there will likely be ‘no-go areas’ for the government, even in domestic policies, especially those with regional implications. Further, the government does not possess the majority to push through many of the bills it had proposed during electioneering.
The coalition does not involve pro-China or pro-Sri Lankan Tamil parties, as in earlier Congress-led coalitions, which led to a subdued approach in developing Indo-US ties. It also impacted managing relations with China and Sri Lanka. The Manmohan Singh government’s foreign policies were influenced by its coalition partners through most of its tenure. It was the threat of resignation by Manmohan Singh as the prime minister which led to the coalition agreeing to the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Current alliance partners would leave the government free to determine its approach towards foreign policy, including engagement with multinational and multilateral organisations. They would back the government in its endeavour to project India more firmly on the global stage. India’s leadership of the Global South as also its alliance with the West would continue as before. There may be some discussions on India’s stand in ongoing conflicts, especially where particular communities are involved, as these could have an internal political impact.
On defence, the new government will need to remain alert. Any negative incident on the border could be embarrassing as a strong Opposition, and possibly even its allies, will attempt to exploit the situation. Investment in enhancing capabilities to deter India’s adversaries and increasing self-reliance on domestic industries will continue sans interference. There is unlikely to be any objection to creating theatre commands — which should be established soon — nor any interference in senior military appointments.
What could come up for discussion would be the locations of new industries and defence industrial corridors. Andhra Pradesh would possibly become a future hub for defence. However, the Agnipath scheme, exploited by the Opposition during electioneering and potentially a factor in the BJP’s loss of seats across north India, is likely to come under fire. The JD(U) has already raised concerns, and Rahul Gandhi has approached the President on the matter. While the scheme may continue, it will likely undergo revisions based on the study currently being undertaken by the Armed Forces.
The scheme had shortfalls even when it was introduced. Although voices were raised against it, the government remained adamant. These shortcomings were exploited during the elections. While completely reversing the scheme is unlikely, as it would reflect poorly on the BJP and the prime minister, amending it is possible, by increasing retention levels and overcoming identified shortcomings. This is possibly the best opportunity for the armed forces to push through the reforms they seek in the scheme.
On the economic front, as long as the economy keeps improving, there is likely to be little objection by the coalition partners. India is today the world’s fifth largest economy, heading to be the third in the near future. It also has the globe’s largest population, for whom increasing employment avenues are essential. The national economic policy and curbing inflation may come up for internal debate. The Opposition will not lose an opportunity to embarrass the government on the economic front, especially when the inflation rises.
Alliance partners will likely demand new industries be located in their states to boost employment and revenue. Global companies establishing operations in India may now be influenced more by political considerations than by purely economic ones. Consequently, states currently attracting the most investment may see a decline as investment is redirected to fulfil the demands of coalition partners.
Most important will be the knowledge and dedication of ministers heading critical ministries. The nation is moving high in global circuits, bargaining ‘free trade agreements,’ and championing the cause of the Global South. India is a player which cannot be ignored on account of its economic and military power. Nations are rushing to partner with India in different spheres. Hence, the government needs experts to ensure India gains at each stage. Therefore, critical ministries should not be allocated on political constraints but knowledge and expertise.
Attempts to break the ruling alliance will be a continuous process, compelling the BJP leadership to avoid taking steps which could threaten its existence. Simultaneously, unity amongst the Opposition is unlikely to last long, as differences already exist and will likely widen. The ruling coalition will likely exploit these divisions. Therefore, both sides will need to work to keep their flock together.
The next set of elections is some months away. Strategies for winning will soon be under discussion. After all, state assemblies nominate members for the Rajya Sabha. The game of consolidating power and planning for upsets has just begun.
Finally, the new government has taken root. As compared to its previous two tenures, this time, it will face closer scrutiny, with every flaw or shortcoming likely to be questioned and exposed. This will enhance India’s democratic credentials and eliminate accusations of ‘electoral autocracy’.
The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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