Chat: Is the end of Gowda raj near in Bangalore?

New Delhi: Where is Karnataka heading? Is the BJP on a stronger wicket after the latest round of HD Deve Gowda's political divorce? Who carries the advantage if elections are held in Karnataka today? These are questions the entire nation has been asking after the latest political circus in Bangalore.

With the Centre deciding to dissolve the Assembly in a few days, the state is staring at mid-term elections in a few months. CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar analysed the scenario in an online chat with IBNLive readers. Find out what he had to say.

MVBalaji: If elections are held today, it will be advantage BJP. So one more year before the elections, does the Congress have any other alternative except hugging Deve Gowda?

Diptosh Majumdar: Disagree with you. There will be greater sympathy for the BJP if the Congress postpones the elections. As it is, as you have already pointed out, the BJP has a groundswell of support, especially in urban Karnataka. Delaying elections would mean giving a certain majority to the BJP.

Rangan: Who's the loser in this drama, Gowda or the BJP? Will this not lead to a kind of sympathy wave for the BJP?

Diptosh Majumdar: Obviously, the BJP should be the big gainer. Look at the possibilities the BJP has now with the urban traditional voters supporting the party and also with the Lingayat community fully backing the party. The Lingayats had a great chance to have a chief minister of their own after eight years. The last Lingayat chief minister was JH Patel and that too, he was a puppet in the hands of Deve Gowda.

Rajanikanta: Don't you feel there is no public interest and only political move in Karnataka?

Diptosh Majumdar: Agree completely with you, if you mean that the parties are concerned with the welfare of the public. If you look at the Karnataka politics for the last 20 months, it has become centred around one family. It is the interest of this family, which has become the most important thing in the state.

Mukesh: Does the recent episode in Karnataka give a message to people all over India that small parties should not be voted as they are almost always responsible for mid-term polls?

Diptosh Majumdar: To some extent, I agree with you. It's actually a very perceptive question, Mukesh. Congratulation for thinking along these lines. Look what the Left is doing to the UPA Government despite having only 60 MPs in a House of 540. Look what is happening in the small state of Jharkhand, an Independent MLA has become chief minister and he has completed one year in office because it suits everybody to have him as CM.

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Yogesh Krishnan: Hello sir, with all these ugly incidents coming into picture, how far can the BJP take the advantage of the sympathy wave generated thus far? Is this the end of Gowda's circus?

Diptosh Majumdar: The BJP should get sympathy, crucial sympathy. After all, it's the only untested of the three parties and has never formed a government. But it is also true some critics of the BJP are saying that in the past two weeks the party's desperation to capture power was also exposed. But I personally think the sympathy factor will far outweigh that desperation aspect.

Sandeep: What will be next steps ahead for Gowda and his sons?

Diptosh Majumdar: Gowda and his sons need to take three steps. Step No 1: To convince the electorate that they were not doing elaborate and purposeful doublespeak, a very difficult thing to achieve because nobody would believe them. Step No 2: To hold their flock together. We know that JD(S) MLAs are very upset because nobody wanted elections now. Step No 3: Try and win at least forty or more seats in the next elections because then only it will create a similar chaotic scenario. When you three party elections, political anarchy is bound to happen and as the Karnataka experience has shown, the smallest party will then extract much more than its pound of flesh.

Vijayakumartb: Is the rise of regional politics responsible for the slow death of national parties?

Diptosh Majumdar: I wouldn't use the phrase the rise of regional politics. We don't have a situation like 1996 when the non-Congress, non-BJP parties were numerically much more than the two main parties. But having said that I must also say that the non-BJP but the BJP allies, the UPA allies and the UNPA or Third Front parties may do far better in the next General Elections.

Nishim: What is the message to general public on the break out of such dirty politics. Whom do one support if there is election in near future

Diptosh Majumdar: The message that should go out loud and clear is that we must have civilized politics and not such ruthless, self-centric politics of backstabbing. What Karnataka went through can be described as the height of opportunistic politics, the height of the politics of flip-flop

Naga Viswanath A: Can we solely blame the JD(s) for the present political crisis in Karnataka?

Diptosh Majumdar: To a large extent yes

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Mrinal: Karnataka drama is pathetic and it is against the people's interest. People should accept the concept of two political parties instead of many which keeps rooms for horse trading. Floor change should be banned completely. How politicians can change and join to another party when they are elected in particular party symbol. If they want to join to another party they should seek fresh mandates. Frequent elections cost money and people's money is wasted because of political mockery. It is pathetic to see that many political parties are bent upon to have personal or political gains and they forget about their main responsibilities. Indian electorates must elect right type of candidates who will be dedicated to serve for the country and devote time for the welfare of people as they are the rulers of the country and states. They have been appointed by the people to serve the country.

Diptosh Majumdar: But Mr Banerjee, we have imposed strict restrictions on floorcrossing. Floorcrossing is not possible now after the last constitutional amendment. We have now mergers only when two-thirds of a party decide to merge with another party. I agree that in smaller states like Goa and those of the North-East, politics of ayarams and gayarams is still possible. Karnataka was not exactly about floor crossing. As for two-party rule, why do you want such strict democratic restrictions in a diverse country like India. We are not doing too badly as a nation despite the chaos. Let's be proud of our democratic heritage. It's too rooted now. Look at the fact that both of us are talking to each other about our political differences. Let's not hope for and demand easy solution for a wonderful experience that we are having as Indians at the moment.

Bhashyam: Hi. Even after Karnataka and Nandigram, do you believe that the minorities still consider CPM,JD(S) and Congress to be secular?

Diptosh Majumdar: This question has a huge ambit. It's difficult to answer. There is no fully secular or fully fundamentalist party in India. That's the one answer I'll give to this question. As for my favourite topic of Nandigram, I'll say the faultlines in CPI(M) have been more than exposed, the hypocrisy of the party has been fully highlighted. The JD(S) was far less secular and had become an opportunist party more than twenty months back when despite that secular tag it aligned with the BJP....

Bharat: Is it that finally it all boils down to caste politics , Gowda cannot digest a vokkaliga as CM or is this plain greed/opportunism?

Diptosh Majumdar: I think, Karnataka is slowly but surely moving away from stereotypes of Vokkaliga and Lingayat politics. Gowda had learnt long ago that he could not promote Vokkaliga interests alone. He had not been averse to promoting Lingayat interests...of course...his denial of power to Yeddyurappa will give the impression that he is anti-Lingayat. But if you look at his political moves...he was trying to convince Congress that Rajashekhar Murthy the veteran Congress Lingayat leader could be a possible CM nominee

Dharma Rajan: Hi Diptosh Why cant we just play a 20-20-20 game in Karnataka it will ahve so many benefits no elections,no mockeries like deve gowda and let the political parties work for the welfare of the people rather than for the welfare of their parties?

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Diptosh Majumdar: Good idea, wholly agree... and I think Bangalore and other urban centres in Karnataka should teach us living in Delhi, Mumbai and Kokata an important lesson. They don't take their politicians seriously. Bangalore has been quite calm all through this tamasha

Test: Hi, don’t you think that these developments will indirectly harm the Congress party?

Diptosh Majumdar: The Congress for once did the right thing. It remembered the guidelines laid down by the Supreme Court in the Bommai and the Nitish Kumar judgements. Those two judgements clearly said that the governor had little discretionary role except to assess the numerical strength of the party or the coalition that would form the government. The JD(S)-BJP alliance did have the requisite numbers and the governor did invite them to call the government. Yeddyurappa became the chief minister. That the government did not last long is not exactly a fault of the congress. I think for once the Congress didn't play foul because they had come to distrust Gowda as a possible ally. Otherwise the party is quite capable of dirty tricks with the help of its handpicked governor

Karthik : Hi, i would like to see more regional centric & passionate politicians taking centre stage now. This helps in bargaining at the centre too.

Diptosh Majumdar: Interesting observation. But few regional politician have shown the inclination till now in seriously improving the condition of the people. There are exceptions. Many will say that whatever Naidu did, he did have the welfare of Andhra Pradesh in mind. But there are others like the Gowdas who did not really have the state's welfare in mind. The names of several other regional politicians come to my mind but I don't want to deviate from the topic of discussion and create unnecessary controversies.

Vayuputra: Dear Diptosh, Has the Senor Gowda lost all his brains?Is he living in the pre 1980 era? What is your take on this?

Diptosh Majumdar: I think he tried to be politically shrewd in a very crass and unintelligent way. Gowda has never taken the sensitive urban electorate seriously. He thought his machinations would not really be a cause for controversy or unpopularity in the countryside where his votebank really exists.

Bhashyam: Is the BSP a real/serious threat to Congress? If so, in which states?

Diptosh Majumdar: The BSP is a serious threat to the Congress the way it is growing in many states. Just wait for Delhi elections next year. Am told it's growing organizationally in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Nithi: What do you think the reason behind this episode? I think people remember things for a very short time and all the political parties use this for their advantage.. can there be a change in law to prevent this kind of behaviour ?

Diptosh Majumdar: Don't change laws. Laws don't change the attitude of societies and politicians. Let things get cleansed on their own. Politics has a way of evolving. We shouldn't forcibly introduce course corrections.

Yogesh Krishnan: I read local newspapers which stated that the mining lobby were responsible for make and break of this Govt.BJP has accused Kumaraswamy of corruption. Still JD(S) asked for the mining portfolio and other lucrative posts. Dont u think Kumaraswamy is digging his own grave?

Diptosh Majumdar: When politicians fight and disagree, it's seldom about ideology, it's more often about money. Obviously the JD(S) was looking to control the BJP-led government under Yeddyurappa and the mines in Bellary district was at the heart of the dispute. I am a little more cynical than those who believe that Gowda dumped BJP because it's not a secular party.

S B Shetty: I read a breaking news that Gowda's Son Kumaraswamy is looking at floating a new party? Will this have any effect in forthcoming K'taka election?

Diptosh Majumdar: I don't think that will happen immediately...at least....not till Gowda is alive... H D Revanna and H D Kumaraswamy might fight with each other only in the absence of Gowda... I thought the father-son duo managed the politics of political doublespeak wonderfully during the entire crisis.

Mrinal Kanti Banerjee: Mr Diptosh, please share your views and opinion whether voting can be conducted through Internet? I strongly believe that this process will eradicate the evil of rigging.

Diptosh Majumdar: Thanks, but the Internet space still belongs to the elite in the country. We need to travel to the countryside and educate the people first. Where we are lagging behind immensely is in education.

M V Balaji: If elections are held in Feb, JD(S) will get at least 20 more seats. I am saying this on the basis of the civic polls results. Unlike rest of india, people in karnataka do not take betrayal too seriously. many have happened before, example: bommai, Hegde etc. The gowda's know micro management better than the rest. right?

Diptosh Majumdar: Civic poll is not always a fair indicator. Mayawati did not even contest the local body elections and civic polls before the Uttar Pradesh elections. Everybody thought she won't be able to upstage Mulayam Singh Yadav...but I'll agree with you that Gowda is the shrewdest Karnataka politician and his micro-management in Karnataka countryside is flawless.

Somu: Diptosh Sir, Gowda might not have taken the sensitive urban electorate seriously but we have taken it seriously. I don’t know why, I am hugely upset over what he has done. Though it is not my personal problem. It seems I have started hating Gowda's moves to the core.

Diptosh Majumdar: You have every right to do so. Gowda's brand of politics is not the politics of the future. Tomorrow's India will demand a greater degree of public morality from its politicians.

Sanjay: What punishment should be given to Father and son for playing with people's sentiments?

Diptosh Majumdar: The best punishment for politicians should be unhappy electoral results...

Joynal: Hi Diptosh, it seems that the BJP has still not realised the grim realities of politics down south. The master politician that he is, Deve Gowda, may have more tricks up his sleeve that will sooner than later send the BJP to its logical conclusion south of the Vindhyas.

Diptosh Majumdar: BJP is not seriously a wholly ``touchable'' party south of the Vindhyas. I think that is largely because BJP is not looking for the right symbols in the south. If you are recognized as a Brahmanical, upper-caste party, the south will have strong reservations. Similarly, the symbolism of Ram doesn't carry much weight down south.

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Pansaresachin: What do you think is the future of Karnataka politics? What image is Devegowda going to put in front of Karnataka people? Don’t you think politicians should also have the cod of conduct?

Diptosh Majumdar: Which politician would agree to a code of conduct...but opportunistic politicians are caught out in the end...their ballot boxes are empty

Biranchi Narayan Acharya.: Unless national parties control their greed how can you expect good characters from regional parties?

Diptosh Majumdar: Interesting observation but in Karnataka, Deve Gowda's greed outstripped that of politicians from other parties... Do explain to me in what way either Dharam Singh of Congress or Yeddyurappa of BJP were more avaricious than Gowda?

M.V.Balaji: One has to understand that he caanot live without calling all shots. The number of people he has stampled upon to be what he is today is growing by one more. He knows the karnataka politics very well. Now congress will open doors and may be soon he will be a proud father . The only question now is which son?

Diptosh Majumdar: I don't think Congress is opening its doors this time. They would have loved to. I think the KPCC(I) would probably exert such pressure. But the Prime Minister himself is against going with Gowda after all that has happened. Congress would be labeled extremely opportunistic if it aligns with Gowda at this stage.

Ravi Kiran: Do u see any possibility of the JDS and congress coming together to postpone the elections in a desperate attempt to subside the sympathy wave that could create a wave for the BJP?

Diptosh Majumdar: I think there are some in the Congress who are interested but PM Manmohan Singh, Shivraj Patil and Maharashtra governor and former chief minister S.M.Krishna are dead against it....

Shailesh Saxena: Are politicians like Deve Gowda, Mayavati etc.. are threat to the stability of governments and these people are the new terror face of regional political parties in terms of wastage of public money.

Diptosh Majumdar: These regional faces are extremely necessary because they are more often than not voices from India's invisible countryside but their values are obviously going to be obsolete

Arundhati: The BJP has egg on its face and that wily old fox Gowda is rubbing his hands with glee even as the electorate is made to look stupid..... this whole incident in Karnataka makes a mockery of democracy. But come election time and we blithely forget the humiliation to elect the same bunch of no-gooders to power. What is this country coming to? Are we doomed to such pathetic leaders who are too busy serving their own selfish interests to administer the nation? Will this feeling of deja vu ever lift?

Diptosh Majumdar: Well we are a evolving society with many diverse strata, each deserving the kind of leader it gets....the likes of Gowda is taking advantage of a scenario but should we really be as angry as that or as offended as that....because in a society like ours that is nothing surprising...don't worry, I am an optimist and I believe we shall slowly but surely get out of it

Shashidhar G: Don't you think that Congress need young leaders in Karnataka to take on BJP.Dharmsing and Karge are spent force ?

Diptosh Majumdar: Kharge and Dharam Singh are no longer young, that's true.... Dharam Singh's worth has been assessed...probably he didn't prove to be too effective... am not very sure if Mallikarjun Kharge can be written off at this stage in his career.

Manjunath: Do you think that the first BJP govt fell in South because of Pseudo Secular parties ominous and confused version?

Diptosh Majumdar: It's not as simple as that....there were other issues... Gowda might have tried to confuse people by giving great importance to the secular factor but that was only it was politically convenient for him.

Mahi: Sir do you not think Karnataka politics is gpoing to the way of UP-Bihar politics?

Diptosh Majumdar: Actually, the low-grade kind of politics we witnessed was very appalling but I would have compared it with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh only if there was greater use of musclemen and violence.

Tharuan: Do you think any break up possible in JDS and it's adanvages the BJP or Cong?

Diptosh Majumdar: A little early to say but it's possible but then you never underestimate Gowda.... JD (S) would not have won more than 50 seats in the last elections without the Gowda touch

Sandesh: Hi, do u think the general public would trust the Karnataka government if the same thing continuous, will this effect the IT sector in Karnataka.

Diptosh Majumdar: You have to give one credit to Karnataka politicians. They have never messed with industry except for that brief period when Deve Gowda had a spat with the IT industry and especially Naryanamurthy.