New Delhi: Campaigning has ended in seven states and two union territories for the fifth and final round of Lok Sabha elections on Wednesday with no political alliance claiming a sweeping victory.
The election campaign was the bitterest ever, with senior politicians abusing each other and old allies parting ways. But now as major parties take stock of the political situation they realise that their options for winning power are limited.
CONGRESS PLAN TO POWER
"The UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government will be formed. I have no doubt about it,” said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday. But he also said: "At worst the Congress will emerge as the single largest party."
In a situation where the Congress emerges as the single largest party but falls short of the magic figure of 271 seats in Parliament, the party will have to woo new allies and mollify old partners who refused to support it in elections.
The Congress may have to bring back Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad and Lok Janashakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan.
Lalu and Paswan, who refused to share seats with the Congress in Bihar, on Monday said they were “solidly” behind UPA.
But the Hindi heartland leaders will not be enough for the Congress and the party may have to seek support of AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu. That would be a tough decision to make, as the Congress would have to dump the DMK to get Jayalalithaa’s support. Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Sunday called DMK chief M Karunanidhi UPA’s people of strength.
The Congress’ biggest challenge would be to court the Left Front for support again, almost a year after the Communist parties withdrew support to the Manmohan Singh government.
The Left parties had ruled out supporting the Congress again but now seemed to have softened their stand. The Congress is not an “untouchable” party, says West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, a senior leader of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M).
THE BJP’s OPTIONS
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, too, is searching for alliance. Sources tell CNN-IBN party leaders L K Advani and Narendra Modi are in touch with Jayalalithaa.
Efforts are also being made to get the support of UP Chief Minister Mayawati, the Bahujan Samajwadi Party leader who is expected to do well in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. Sources tell CNN-IBN BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley is in touch with Mayawati’s top aides.
Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banarjee left the NDA and has allied with the Congress in West Bengal. The BJP is trying to convince her that the Congress will prefer the Left to her and bring her back.
In Andhra Pradesh, BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu is wooing Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu.
THE LEFT’s STRATEGY
The four-party Left Front, the “kingmakers” of these elections, would first try to put together a non-BJP and non-Congress government. If their effort to form a Third Front government doesn’t work they might negotiate with the Congress. Sources tell CNN-IBN they would put a stiff condition before the Congress though: Manmohan Singh cannot be PM again.
If a Third Front government not possible, the Communists could sit in Opposition but won't bring down a minority UPA government.
Anything is possible after May 16, for as all leaders keep saying politics is the art of the possible.
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