New Delhi: The Ajmer and Alwar Lok Sabha by-elections have turned out to be a study in contrast in political one-upmanship in the run-up and aftermath. The ruling BJP was sanguine about its chances of victory while the opposition Congress was coy, even overawed by the occasion.
“Congress is afraid to contest and has already lost the elections,” claimed BJP National Vice-President in-charge of Rajasthan Avinash Rai Khanna in the run-up to the by-elections, which were being seen as prestige battle and a referendum of sorts on the Vasundhara Raje government.
Indeed, top Congress leaders and former ministers were somewhat reluctant to enter the electoral fray. In 2009, Alwar was won by former union minister Bhanwar Jitendra Singh and Ajmer by state Congress President Sachin Pilot. Both were swept away by the Modi wave in the 2014 elections.
Now, a month after the ‘young and the restless’ leaders of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s brigade decided to wait for a better opportunity in 2019, the party has bagged both the Lok Sabha seats. It has also registered a comprehensive victory in the Mandalgarh assembly segment despite a party rebel garnering more than 20,000 votes.
Of the three constituencies, Alwar is an interesting case study. Demographically, it has a substantial Yadav and Meo Muslim population. The district, in the last two years, has witnessed nearly half a dozen incidents of cow-vigilantism.
The controversy surrounding controversial movie Padmaavat’s release also seems to have had no impact whatsoever. The BJP seems to have hardly benefited from passions aroused by fringe outlet Karni Sena.
The result in Rajasthan should be a cause for concern for the BJP in the general elections next year. In last year’s Gujarat elections, the BJP managed a hard-fought win thanks to its sway over urban voters remaining intact. But few states in India are as urbanised as PM Narendra Modi’s home state.
A look at the winners of Rajasthan and West Bengal bypolls. (Image: News18 Creative)
In the north, west and central India, where the BJP is strong, the party in 2014 registered massive victory. In Rajasthan, it won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats. In Madhya Pradesh, it won 27 out of 29 seats and in Chhattisgarh, 10 out of 11 seats.
Any depletion in the number of seats in these states may cumulatively burn a big hole in party’s overall tally.
Vasundhara Raje, who returned to power in the last assembly elections with a three-fourth majority, has her task cut out. BJP Vice-President Om Mathur over the years has remained her only challenger. With less than twelve months to go for polls party may not want to disrupt the status quo.
As for the Congress, after the Gujarat polls, Ashok Gehlot emerged as the contender for CM’s post. Despite his reluctance to fight elections, PCC President Sachin Pilot will attempt to emerge as the face of the party to challenge Raje government later this year.
Rajasthan has in many ways set the stage of an interesting electoral tussle in the coming months.
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