The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2023-24, compared with 7.2 per cent in the previous fiscal, according to the first advance estimates of national accounts released on Friday by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2023-24, the NSO said, “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 171.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.06 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2023”.
According to a statement, the growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3 per cent as compared with 7.2 per cent in 2022-23.
GDP at current prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 296.58 lakh crore against the provisional estimate of GDP of Rs 272.41 lakh crore for the year 2022-23, released on May 31, 2023, it stated.
The growth in nominal GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.9 per cent against 16.1 per cent in 2022-23, it added.
In December 2023, the RBI raised India’s GDP growth rate estimate to 7 per cent for 2023-24 from its earlier projection of 6.5 per cent.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research and outreach) at ICRA, said, “The Advance Estimates released by the NSO peg GDP growth in FY2024 at 7.3 per cent, much higher than our estimate of 6.5 per cent. Implicitly, the NSO expects the GDP growth to moderate to 7.0 per cent in H2 FY2024 from 7.7% in H1 FY2024. Surprisingly, the estimated GVA growth of 6.9 per cent for FY2024 implies that growth in this metric has been assumed at 6.2 per cent in H2, significantly lower than the imputed GDP number for this period.”
She added that the growth assumed for H2 FY2024 is quite high, given the tepid outlook for agriculture amidst the weak kharif output and ongoing lag in rabi sowing, as well as the feared temporary slowdown in capex ahead of the General Elections. The GoI’s capex declined by 8.8 per cent YoY during October-November 2023 after rising by 43.1 per cent in H1 FY2024.
“The NSO has pegged the nominal GDP growth at 8.9 per cent in FY2024, sharply lower than the 16.1 per cent seen in FY2023, with the deceleration largely on account of the turnaround in the WPI print to a deflation from an inflation in the previous year. Based on the nominal GDP for FY2024 estimated by the NSO, the GoI’s absolute budgeted fiscal deficit of Rs. 17.9 trillion works out to 6.0 per cent of GDP, a tad higher than the FY2024 BE of 5.9 per cent of GDP,” Nayar said.
Meanwhile, in its ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024’ report, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and its GDP growth is projected to hit 6.2 per cent in 2024.
India remains the fastest-growing large economy in the world. Though growth in India is projected to reach 6.2 per cent in 2024, it is slightly lower than the 6.3 per cent estimate for 2023, amid robust domestic demand and strong growth in the manufacturing and services sectors.
(With PTI Inputs)
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