After initial reports that a cloudburst had triggered flash floods that killed 16 people near the holy cave shrine of Amarnath, the Met has said the deaths and destruction were due to a highly localised rain event that cannot be categorised as a cloudburst. According to weather scientists at the India Meteorological Department, the floods could have been caused by rainfall in the upper reaches of the mountains near the Amarnath cave shrine.
The IMD said the shrine reported 31 mm rainfall between 4.30 pm and 6.30 pm on Friday, which is quite low to be categorised as a cloudburst. “The flash floods could have been triggered due to rainfall in the higher reaches of the mountains near the Amarnath cave shrine,” IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told PTI.
A rain event can be categorised as a cloudburst only if a weather station receives 100 mm of rain in an hour. The IMD has an automatic weather station near the Amarnath cave shrine, which provides weather forecasts during the pilgrimage. But, the surrounding mountainous areas do not have any such station due to inaccessibility.
Gushing water from the top of the cave shrine washed away tents and community kitches, or langars, as heavy boulders and mud came hurtling downstream after a spell of rain the evening before.
“It was a highly localised cloud only over the holy cave. Such rain had happened earlier this year as well,” said Sonam Lotus, director of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Srinagar. The region above the Amarnath cave shrine received 28 mm rainfall between 5.30 pm and 6.30 pm, a scientist from the IMD said.
Weather scientists said it was difficult to predict cloudbursts due to their small scale in space and time. To monitor or issue nowcast, a dense radar network over the cloudburst-prone areas is required or one needs to have high-resolution weather forecasting models to resolve the scale of such events, they added.
(With PTI inputs)
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