Minus Jayalalithaa, Who All Stand to Lose in Tamil Nadu Politics

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa passed away early on Monday at a Chennai hospital hours after suffering a cardiac arrest.

Inconsolable supporters and AIADMK cadre thronged the Apollo Hospitals as tributes poured in for the popular leader from across the political spectrum.

Here are the possible political calculations that can take place With Jayalalithaa not around anymore:

IN AIADMK

- Sasikala’s coterie, estimated at 60+ MLAs plus 12 ministers would attempt to counter any attempt by DMK or others to unseat the AIADMK government.

- Forgetting their differences, albeit temporarily various factions of the AIADMK backed by the bureaucracy would try and stick together to run the govt.

- Sasikala, despite trust deficit with O. Paneerselvam may not rock his boat understanding well that Amma herself reposed faith in him and any attempt to tinker his position may backfire.

- AIADMK cadre may rebel against Sasikala’s cabal given the huge sense of betrayal.

- Sasikala may evoke Mukkulathor (Thevar) caste tag to keep legislators united. Mukkulathors in the past lent a lot of electoral support to the AIADMK supremo.

- A compromise may be reached between Mukkulathors (mostly in south TN) and Gounders (western TN) caste groups to share the power with LS Dy Speaker M. Thambi Durai, a Gounder, being given free hand in Delhi and Sasikala’s nominee as the new CM.

- Sasikala may field Sheela Balakrishnan, a former chief secretary and chief adviser to the CM as a trump card to contain dissent within AIADMK.

DMK

- Will attempt not to let the assembly get dissolved by poaching rebel AIADMK MLAs, those who will not like to go for fresh polls.

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- Rebel AIADMK MLAs may agree to work under Stalin’s leadership given his fresh outreach among youth and voters in the state.

- Will be cautious about ensuing change in AIADMK leadership that may result in collapse of administration and give BJP a chance to impose president’s rule and thereby make inroads in state’s politics.

BJP

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- May join hands with Sasikala faction in case state goes for fresh polls.

- Party may attempt to project itself as an alternative with national connection.

- Central government can influence the happenings around change of guard in the state but highly unlikely that it can do much given the party has no credible and acceptable face in the state.

CONGRESS

- Could further lose with many leaving AIADMK may opt for a stronger BJP.