India is busy augmenting its healthcare facilities, especially for children, and ramping up vaccination efforts against warnings of a third wave due to arrive soon, according to experts. The second wave left permanent scars in April and May, as cases skyrocketed, deaths overwhelmed and medical infrastructure remained overburdened.
So as the country practices vigilance amid the warnings, what do experts say about the arrival of the third wave?
When Will it happen; by September-end, October, or November?
Some experts say it will happen in October, predicting a peak in November. But that also depends on whether a more virulent strain of the virus emerges.
The Delta variant, discovered to be deadlier and more infectious than most other strains of the coronavirus, drove virus cases in the country during the second wave. Even as cases in India have dipped, other nations – Israel, the US – are struggling to combat the spread of the Delta.
Thus, experts say that a more infectious mutant of the virus could drive home a third wave of the virus. Manindra Agrawal, an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts that have been tasked with predicting any surge in infections, said India may see a third wave of COVID-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerge by September, but its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave. He added that if no new virulent emerges, then the situation is unlikely to change.
Epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil had earlier told the News Minute that if there is a new mutant, it may be able to produce a wave. But in places like Chennai, where nearly 80% of the population have immunity, there can’t be a big wave, he said. “As the virus replicates, it would not be able to jump further from an immune person. To create an exponential rise, there should be susceptible people, he added.
Another expert panel, set up by an institute under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), had predicted a third wave of hitting the country anytime between September and October and suggested significantly ramping up vaccination pace. The committee of experts, constituted by the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), also said that children will have a similar risk as adults since paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected.
A report by SBI research had earlier said the third wave would hit India by mid-August, while cases may peak in September. The report, titled ‘Covid-19: The race to finishing line’, stated that vaccination is the only saviour as global data shows that, on an average, the third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the peak cases at the time of second wave. A previous report by SBI had more or less correctly predicted that the second wave of infections in India may peak in the third week of May.
How would we know that the third wave has arrived?
The third wave would be registered by a likely increase in cases at the national level. After peaking on May 6, the national curve appears to have entered a declining phase. In the last two weeks, the daily case count has fallen to around 2.6 lakh from a high of 4.14 lakh, while the number of active cases has fallen to 32.25 lakh from a high of 37.45 lakh. If current trends continue, India is anticipated to achieve the same level of case numbers as in February by July.
If a new surge occurs after that and lasts for a few weeks or months, it will be described as the third wave.
Meanwhile, states may continue to suffer local surges, as is happening in Kerala and Maharashtra. However, they would not be considered the third wave if they were not powerful enough to affect the direction of the national curve. Furthermore, the more localised the spike, the quicker it is expected to pass, but places such as Mumbai and Pune have experienced lengthy surges.
What could a third wave look like?
If the third wave peaks, the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against more than 4 lakh when the deadly second wave was at its peak in May, Manindra Agrawal said. The second wave killed thousands and infected several lakh. “Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50% more infectious mutant comes by September. As one can see, the only scenario with some semblance of third wave is New Variant one for epsilon = 1/33. In this scenario, new cases rise to ~1 lakh per day,” Agrawal said in a tweet.
Last month, the mathematical model Agrawal is involved in, suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November and the daily cases could shoot between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 drive fresh infections. However, no mutant that was more infectious than the Delta, which drove the infections during the third wave, emerged.
Last week’s forecast was the same, but only the range of daily cases has been brought down to 1-1.5 lakh in the latest one. With the fresh data, the daily infections are further expected to drop in the range of a lakh.
Agrawal said the fresh data comprising the vaccinations that have taken place in July and August, the sero-surveys that gave insights about the anti-bodies were factored in while assuming the scenarios. According to a study by the researchers of Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the R or the Reproductive value of the coronavirus pandemic was 0.89. It is necessary that the R value is under one that can help arrest the spread of infection. Vaccination has been the biggest weapon worldwide to combat coronavirus and more than 63 crore doses have been administered in the country, according to the CoWIN dashboard.
With inputs from PTI.
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