Congress Govt In Himachal On Verge Of Collapse? Can BJP Return To Power? Numbers Game Explained

The Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu-led government in Himachal Pradesh is on the brink of losing power in the hilly state after the shocking defeat of Congress in Rajya Sabha election opened “Pandora’s Box” of the inevitable problem of infighting within the party’s state unit.

As many as six Congress MLAs openely rebelled against the Sukhu government and voted for the BJP candidate in the Rajya Sabha election while seven more legislators expressed their views against the Chief Minister, adding more trouble for the Congress high command.

The Congress expected its candidate Abhishek Manu Singhvi to make his way to the Upper House as the party had 40 MLAs in the 68-member Himachal Assembly. However, Singhvi lost the polls as nine MLAs – six from Congress and three Independents – cross-voted for the BJP candidate making Harsh Mahajan win the Rajya Sabha polls from Himachal Pradesh.

Let’s Look At The Possible Scenarios Likely to Occur in Himachal Pradesh: 

The Himachal Pradesh Assembly has 68 members, with 35 being the majority mark. The Congress party won the 2022 Assembly polls by winning a majority of 40 seats. The BJP was restricted to just 25 seats, while three independent candidates won the polls. The Congress claimed the support of three independent MLAs, taking its number to 43, and formed the government in the hill state.

Scenario 1: If the 6 Rebel MLAs Get Disqualified

If the six rebel MLAs get disqualified, the majority mark turns to 32 (Total Members in the Assembly 68 – 6 = 62 members). Despite the six rebels getting disqualified, the Congress camp is left with 34 MLAs (40 MLAs – 6 Rebels = 34 MLAs), while the BJP will be left with 28 MLAs (25 BJP MLAs + 3 Independents).

Therefore, even with the disqualification of the six rebel MLAs, the Congress is set to win the trust vote in the Himachal Assembly with 34 of its legislators, exceeding the majority mark of 32.

Scenario 2: If the 13 Disgruntled MLAs Resign

The Congress government is likely to fall into trouble if the 13 disgruntled MLAs resign from the party. With the resignation of the 13 MLAs, the Congress government would fall short of the majority number as it would be reduced to 27 (40 MLAs – 13 MLAs = 27 MLAs), while the majority mark will be 28 (65 – 13 = 52). Notably, the BJP is currently having 28 MLAs supporting it (25 BJP MLAs + 3 Independents = 28 MLAs). In this scenario, the numbers are likely to swing in the saffron camp’s favour.

Scenario 3: If Rebel Number Goes Up

In case the number of rebel MLAs goes up, the Congress is sure to lose its government in one of the only three states it is currently ruling — Himachal Pradesh. If more Congress MLAs come forward stating that they too are unhappy with the government, the Congress party has to take a few tough decisions to ensure that the concerns of the rebel MLAs are addressed.

The other option that might help Congress to secure its government in Himachal Pradesh would be changing the chief ministerial face in the state. However, this might help the party only if it’s just the CM which has been a point of concern for party MLAs.