New Delhi: The voters of Delhi seem to have pressed the exit button for the Congress in the December 4 Assembly elections. The ruling Congress is likely to be relegated to the third position after 15 years in the office.
The CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS post-poll survey predicts the end of Sheila Dikshit era in the national capital. It also predicts the arrival of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on the national scene as a serious player.
Delhi is likely to get a BJP government after 15 years as according to the survey. The main opposition party is likely to emerge either as the single largest party or as a clear winner with 32-42 seats, according to the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar.
The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is likely to come second with 13-21 seats while Congress is expected to win just 9-17 seats. Others in the fray are likely to get 1-5 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly.
If the BJP falls short of a simple majority by 3-4 seats, it can look at others for the support. But, the other parties like the BSP, the JDU etc will have to win at least 4-5 seats to prevent a badly hung assembly in India's only city state.
How Delhi voted
The BJP is expected to get 33 per cent of the votes, the AAP, which did not exist in the last elections, is likely to garner 27 per cent of the votes and the Congress is projected to get just 23 per cent of the votes. The BSP and Others are expected to bag 8 per cent and 9 per cent votes respectively.
When compared to 2008 Assembly elections, the Congress seems to have lost 17 per cent of the votes. The BJP is expected to improve its percentage by 3 and the BSP is likely to lose 6 per cent votes.
Price rise, voters craving for change and the allegations of corruption have hit the Sheila Dikshit government hard. Shockingly, the Sheila Dikshit government is extremely unpopular across Delhi.
A massive 70 per cent of voters said that they are unhappy with her government and did not want her back as the Chief Minister for the 4th straight term. A mere 23 per cent wanted her back and 7 per cent had no opinion.
The overall satisfaction level with the government has also come down to 40 per cent from 66 per cent in 2008. 56 per cent voters are dissatisfied with the government.
Kejriwal most preferred choice for CM
The AAP convener tops the popularity graph as 27 per cent want him as the next Chief Minister of Delhi. BJP's Dr. Harsh Vardhan has got 22 per cent support and the incumbent Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit has got just 15 per cent backing for the top post.
Sheila's popularity has also plummeted to all time low in the last 15 years. In 2008 it was 34 per cent and in 2009 it was 41 per cent. It had touched an all time high in 2004 with 56 per cent.
Among the young voters in the age group of 18-25 years, Arvind Kejriwal is the most popular with 32 per cent votes. Sheila Dikshit has got just 16 per cent support among the young voters.
Price rise makes Congress unpopular
Price rise has made the Congress most unpopular among the voters. Overall 37 per cent voters said that the price rise was the biggest concern when they went to vote with 42 per cent of the women echoing the same.
After price rise, corruption comes second with overall 27 per cent voters. The much talked about security is the biggest worry for just 3 per cent voters.
People's perception of Central and state governments
Both the UPA government at the Centre and the Congress government in Delhi are unpopular. While 63 per cent voters are dissatisfied with the Centre, 56 per cent are unhappy with the state government.
2014 Lok Sabha picture: Modi the preferred choice
Nearly half the respondents including AAP voters want to see BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister. Surprisingly, even among the Congress voters, Modi has found some backers.
Overall 49 per cent respondents have backed Modi for the PM post. The Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has got 11 per cent, Arvind Kejriwal 6 per cent, current PM Manmohan Singh 4 per cent, Congress President Sonia Gandhi 2 per cent and BSP chief Mayawati has got just 1 per cent backing respectively.
In a direct contest between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, the Gujarat Chief Minister maintains a wide lead. While Modi has got 59 per cent support, Rahul Gandhi has got just 20 per cent support.
####
Comments
0 comment