Kerala Exit Poll 2024: Cong-led UDF May Win 15 to 18 Seats, BJP Likely to Open Account in Southern State

Kerala is set to remain a stronghold of the United Democratic Front, led by the Congress, as the exit polls predicted a win for the alliance in the southern state with 15 to 18 seats. The BJP-led NDA, however, is likely to open its account with at least one seat for the saffron party in the southern state.

According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll survey, the Congress alone is predicted to win 12 to 15 seats, while the BJP may win one to three seats. This may be a significant development for the saffron party as Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also said the party will make a dent ruled by the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which may end up with two to five seats.

Pollsters have predicted UDF dominance in Kerala, where sitting MP and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is a candidate from Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency.

In the island union territory of Lakshadweep, meanwhile, is also predicted to go the INDIA bloc. The election to Lakshadweep’s sole seat in the Lok Sabha took place in the first phase of the elections on April 19, in which it recorded a voter turnout of 83.88 per cent. The constituency witnessed a fierce battle between sitting MP and NCP (Sharad Pawar) leader Mohammed Faizal and Congress leader Hamdullah Sayeed. Yusuf TP of the NCP (Ajit Pawar) was also in the fray.

What are the stakes in Kerala?

A total of 20 Lok Sabha seats are up for grabs in Kerala, which voted in a single phase during the second round on April 26, recorded an average voter turnout of 71.27 per cent. The overall voter turnout has dropped from the 2019 general elections. This time, at least nine seats recorded a turnout below 70 per cent and none of the seats reported turnout above 80 per cent. Pathanamthitta (63.37 per cent) saw the lowest turnout in 2024 while Vadakara (78.41 per cent) reported the highest.

Out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, eight had more than 80 per cent voter turnout in 2019. On the remaining 12 seats, the turnout was above 70 per cent. In 2019, the voter turnout in the state was 77.84 per cent. In 2019, Kannur saw highest turnout in the state at 83.28 per cent while the capital city Thiruvananthapuram saw 73.74 per cent turnout, lowest among the seats.

Kerala has consistently recorded the highest voter turnout. It has been a stronghold for the Congress, with the United Democratic Front led by the grand old party securing 19 out of 20 seats. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front won only one seat while the BJP-led NDA failed to win any.

The key candidates in the fray were Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal, Shashi Tharoor, K Muraleedharan and K Sudhakaran of the Congress; Elamaram Kareem, KK Shailaja, C Raveendranath and MV Jayarajan of the CPI(M); and K Surendran, Suresh Gopi, V Muraleedharan and Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

The constituencies to watch out for are Wayanad – where Rahul Gandhi will be taking on the CPI’s Annie Raja and BJP’s K Surendran – Kannur, Alappuzha, Thrissur, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kottayam, and Malappuram.

Gandhi, who is the sitting MP from Wayanad, is the candidate from his constituency, underscoring Kerala’s strategic importance for the Congress. This time, Shashi Tharoor is facing a tough fight from union minister Rajeev Chandrashekar in Thiruvananthapuram. The BJP is hoping to make a dent on the back of high-profile candidates like the union minister, veteran politician AK Antony’s son Anil Antony, who is contesting from Pathanamthitta, as well as actor Suresh Gopi.

Kerala has been one of the few states to effectively counter the “Modi wave” in two successive elections. The saffron party did not win any seat in the state in 2014 and 2019. But, looking at the exit poll results, it may change this time.

The UDF and the LDF have dominated Kerala’s Lok Sabha seats, with the latter’s vote share recording a significant drop in 2019. The Congress-led UDF, in fact, swept Kerala in the previous polls registering a historic landslide victory.

The counting of votes for the Lok Sabha polls will take place on June 4. Exit polls are numbers predicting the expected winners and the margin of their victory and are mostly released on the last day of the voting by different agencies based on their collected data. These predictions are made based on voter feedback that is collected by survey agencies after polling. Even though the predictions are not always correct and have earlier been under scrutiny, the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment ahead of the announcement of the actual results.

How was the News18 Mega Exit Poll conducted?

The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.

A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.

On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.

You can catch the live updates of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Exit Polls here on News18.com. To catch accurate predictions and timely information, keep an eye on our website. Stay tuned for more updates.

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