From Biden dropping out of the Presidential elections, Bangladesh erupting with violent protests, to the news of PM Narendra Modi visiting Ukraine on August 23, it has been an eventful week. The three major geopolitical events will have a significant impact on India and its foreign policy.
1) Biden Drops Out
Biden’s presidency failed to unite the United States. His decision to drop out of the race has only divided the US further. The Grand Old Party is calling it a bloodless coup, while the Democrats call it a mature decision taken by Biden for the greater good. The whole controversy stemmed from the way the news was communicated by Biden to the rest of the world. There were serious discussions on numerous podcasts and on X (where the news was first published) about Biden’s signature, his failure to address the nation for a couple of days after the decision, and some even more serious regarding his health.
In a normal election year, a sitting president dropping out of the presidential race mere months before the elections would have been the biggest shock. However, this isn’t a “normal election” for the United States. There was an assassination attempt last week on former US President and the running Republican candidate Donald Trump. He survived, and a few days later, Biden dropped out of the race.
For the past three years, the media and political analysts have been calling the American society divisive the way it was during the civil war. The Democrats and Republicans do not see eye-to-eye on any major issue. Both the Trump and Biden presidency has been at odds on foreign policy, be it the US policy on Venezuela, or their engagement in NATO, North Korea. However, there has been one exception — US foreign policy on India.
The India-US relationship has found a comfortable rhythm in recent years, with a shared understanding on strategic matters emerging across both sides. This bipartisan consensus suggests that the core elements of the partnership will likely endure, regardless of changes in the White House. As India seeks to broaden its security and defence horizons, it is steadily growing into a vital strategic ally for the United States.
Moreover, the evolving regional security environment, particularly the rise of China, adds another layer of complexity to the India-US partnership. Both the countries see the need for a stable and open Indo-Pacific region, a goal increasingly challenged by China’s assertive actions. This shared concern has naturally pushed India and the US closer, fostering deeper cooperation on issues of maritime security, defence technology sharing, and strategic dialogues. The developing situation in the Indo-Pacific is likely to further cement the India-US relationship as a critical element in maintaining regional balance.
2) TURMOIL IN BANGLADESH
In our neighbourhood is Bangladesh, which is in great duress with a large number of violent protests. At least 150-200 protestors have died in a month-long agitation which turned violent in recent weeks. At least 9,000 people have been arrested nationwide since the unrest began.
The international community has watched the situation in Bangladesh with growing concern. The United Nations, along with prominent human rights organisations, have voiced their condemnation of the excessive force used against protesters. Western governments, including the US and UK, have echoed these concerns, urging Dhaka to respect the fundamental right to peaceful assembly and address the protesters through dialogue, not force.
The current unrest has also cast a spotlight on the increasingly fraught political landscape in Bangladesh. Critics argue that the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in her 15th year in power, has displayed increasingly authoritarian tendencies. They point to the systematic targeting of political opponents and activists through mass arrests, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings – accusations the government has vehemently denied. This latest crisis, sparked by the controversial court ruling on job quotas, has exposed the deep-seated frustrations with a system seen by many as rigged against ordinary citizens.
Being their neighbours, we have much to worry about how the protests turn out. The extensive border shared by India and Bangladesh, stretching over 4,000 kilometres, makes the current situation particularly worrisome for New Delhi. India’s northeastern states, many grappling with their own internal security challenges, are particularly vulnerable to spillover effects. The potential for unrest to spread across this porous border, exacerbating existing tensions in Assam, West Bengal and other states, is a pressing concern for Indian security agencies.
Adding to these concerns are reports of the protests, initially sparked by students’ grievances, attracting more radical elements. The potential for Islamist groups, some known to harbour anti-India sentiments, to exploit the unrest has raised alarm bells in New Delhi. The Indian government has invested considerable diplomatic capital in cultivating stronger ties with Bangladesh over the past decade, seeking to foster stability in its neighbourhood and counterbalance growing Chinese influence.
India’s ratification of the land boundary agreement and resolution of the maritime dispute were significant milestones in this effort. The current crisis threatens to unravel this hard-won progress, potentially jeopardising years of careful diplomacy, especially with China vying for influence. The country has become internationally isolated as Western states raise the issue of human rights. This is also not the first time that the US has tried to inflate or influence issues in Bangladesh via international pressure.
It has become a war of attrition between India and China. However, any signs that China has been gaining a stronger foothold were laid to rest when Sheikh Hasina returned from her trip to China a day earlier than planned. According to reports, while Beijing has offered 1 billion yuan, Dhaka was hoping for more; much to the delight of those in New Delhi’s power chambers.
3) MODI TO UKRAINE
One of the biggest announcements which showcases India’s greater geopolitical heft has been reports of Modi’s visit to Ukraine. This will be the first time the Indian prime minister will visit the war-torn country since the outbreak of hostilities in 2022. The announcement comes 20 days after Modi went to Russia for the Russia-India summit and met Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Modi’s visit and the subsequent hug with Vladimir Putin was widely criticised by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. While no formal announcement has been made, the situation presents India to leverage its geopolitical influence which it has gained after years of strategic manoeuvring. Reports have also emerged that US has enhanced its discussions on peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict with India. It has been reported that secretary of state Antony Blinken emphasised the importance of a “just and enduring peace” for Ukraine in a meeting with Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar.
India’s stance on the war in Ukraine has also been on similar lines — peace must prevail. On the sidelines of multiple major international conferences to his latest visit to Moscow, Modi has reiterated to Putin India’s peaceful desires. He has also reiterated that war is not the solution to problems which Russia faces. It outlines India’s desire for peace and the upcoming visit to Ukraine underlines India’s geopolitical rise. Modi is also one of the few leaders in the world to have healthy relations with presidents of both Russia and Ukraine, outlining India’s unique position.
This past week has been a reminder that international relations are rarely simple or straightforward. The sudden uncertainty in US leadership, the crisis in Bangladesh and the potential for India to mediate the Ukraine conflict, while geographically dispersed, point to the complexities of the emerging world order.
The evolving relationship between India and the US sits at the heart of this intricate dance. Both nations see a strategic need for closer cooperation, particularly in countering Chinese ambitions, but the path ahead is complicated. The US, even as it seeks to strengthen ties with India, is wary of New Delhi’s continued engagement with Moscow, particularly regarding the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, developments in Bangladesh highlight the difficult balancing act India faces in its own neighbourhood, where domestic unrest can quickly escalate into a regional crisis. The possibility of India playing a more active role in mediating the Ukraine conflict adds another layer of complexity.
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