Indonesia is poised to see a former army general and son-in-law of a dictator to take the reins of the country after unofficial count has given him strong leads. Activists fear that Prabowo Subianto, 72, who was a former special commander under the Suharto dictatorship, will give little regards to human rights and bring the country back to the dark history of torture and disappearances.
The official results may take a month to be released, but exit polls show Subianto winning close to 60% of the vote, which would be a landslide victory. The runner-up, Anies Baswedan, appears to have secured around 24-25% of the vote while Ganjar Prannowo is sitting on just 17%, according to The Conversation.
Who is Prabowo Subianto?
Prabowo was born in 1951 in Jakarta, and is son of famous Indonesian economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo. He joined the Indonesian Military Academy in 1970 and then became part of the Kopassus unit.
He married Soherto’s daughter, Siti Hediati, in 1983, but the couple divorced 15 years later.
Prabowo led Kopassus special forces during the anti-China riots across Indonesia in May 1998, but was discharged from the military after the soldiers kidnapped and tortured political activists.
In the Kopassus forces’ crackdown on a protest at Jakarta’s Trisakti University that year, four students were killed and dozens were wounded.
Prabowo was never charged in the Trisakti incident or the 22 abductions that took place that year. He never faced trial even after his own men levelled allegations against him.
The US has imposed a travel ban on him, which was only lifted in 2020 after which he was appointed as the defence minister of Indonesia in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s cabinet.
Besides this, Prabowo has been involved in military crimes in East Timor, which Indonesia captured in 1975, as well as in the eastern province of West Papua.
How Did Prabowo Secured a Win?
He co-founded the nationalist, right-wing Gerinda Party in 2008. He also ran for the presidency in 2014 and 2019 but lost of Joko Widodo.
The online campaigns run by Prabowo’s team has portrayed his image as “cute grandpa” to attract the young voters, who was oblivious of his dark history. The young voters of Indonesia account for 50% of the total electorate.
His social media rebranding campaign featuring his felines, angelic AI avatar and TikTok dances have swayed many youngsters to his “cuddly” (gemoy) persona.
Prabowo has also gained from his association with Jokowi who is a popular figure in the country. Prabowo has promised to continue Jokowi’s legacy, and keep up his pet projects on nickel mining and construction of Nusantara as the new capital of Indonesia.
While Jokowi did not officially endorse any candidate, he was spotted with Prabowo at dinner, and lent his face on the posters alongside Prabowo and Gibran.
What to Expect from the Next President?
According to the Indonesian system, Prabowo will not take the oath until October. In the meantime, Jokowi will remain in office. The time will be used by the political and business elite for political negotiations, horse-trading and pay-offs in order to set up the new regime.
Prabowo’s rivals will be removed while top posts in the government can be reserved for the oligarchs who supported Prabowo’s campaigns.
Analysts say there are slim chances of Prabowo’s presidency downgrading Indonesia to full-fledged autocracy but there could be incidents, which would erode few elements of democracy.
Prabowo has been very clear in his campaign that he thinks the democratic reforms that led to the fall of Soherto in 1998 should be reversed. This could mean dismantling of free checks and balances and individual freedom.
What Does His Presidency Mean for India?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Prabowo on his win, and said he is looking forward to strengthening Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Indonesia.
According to reports, the president-elect is keen on buying India’s BrahMo missiles and emulate social programmes such as the mid-day meal scheme in Indonesia’s schools.
Both countries share concerns about China’s growing influence in the region, and Indonesia’s vast coastline and India’s maritime prowess could be beneficial for both the countries.
India is currently Indonesia’s 14th largest source of foreign investments — valued at $275.4 million in 2023 last year — according to the Indonesian government data.
The two-way trade between Indonesia and India stood at $28.2 billion in 2023, against $32.7 billion in the previous year.
India is one of 20 countries Indonesia is offering visa-free entry privileges to boost tourist arrivals.
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