What Would Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Look Like? Huge Loss for US, Japan, Taipei & Beijing's Defeat: Report

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would unlikely lead to Beijing’s victory and would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, the US, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, a prominent Washington think tank has said.

A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in a crippled state like the Chinese forces, CNN reported.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that after the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would sink to the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy would be in “shambles.”

The CSIS drove to the conclusions, in case of a possible conflict over Taiwan, through the use of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

President Xi, China’s most assertive leader in a generation, has made clear that what he calls the “reunification” of Taiwan cannot be passed on to future generations.

Last year saw a spike in tensions as Beijing ramped up military pressure and launched its largest war games in decades to protest against a visit by then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi in August.

The CSIS report, titled “The First Battle of the Next War” and based on two dozen war scenarios, was necessary because previous government and private war simulations are too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at the conflict.

“There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders.

“Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice,” he said.

The think tank ran this war game 24 times to find answers to two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

The report said that the US and Japan would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of soldiers.

The losses incurred from the conflict would damage the US global position for many years.

“In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan,” the report said.

It further said that China would suffer heavily too as tens of thousands of soldiers would become prisoners of war and it would result in deaths of 10,000 troops, lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

Similarly, Japan is likely to lose more than 100 fighter jets and 26 warships while US military bases in its territory would come under Chinese attack.

Taiwan too would be devastated irrespective of who wins the war as the island nation would suffer from damaged economy without electricity and basic services.

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